---
title: "M 9 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M 9 ($904.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.46% from 29 items with odds, observed 97.46% over 3 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [M 9](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · M 9

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9?window=all)

Price · $904.99

Advertised RTP · 92.46% · EV $836.75 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.46% · 3 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 3 openings · below min

30 days · 3 openings · below min

since tracking started · 3 openings · below min

-0.5% 80.5% 161.5%

**Small sample.** 3 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9?window=24h) | 2 | 69.19% ±77.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9?window=7d) | 3 | 97.46% ±63.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9) | 3 | 97.46% ±63.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/m9?window=all) | 3 | 97.46% ±63.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 3,425 | $7,945 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,289 | $7,857 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,347 | $7,120 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 967 | $5,485 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 653 | $4,689 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $1,642 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · Knives · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 46 | $1,634 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 39 | $1,506 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $1,394 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $1,386 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 27 | $1,244 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1,163 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1,119 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1,114 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 13 | $965 | 9.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $911 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $789 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $637 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $576 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $477 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $445 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $384 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $329 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $319 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $302 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $297 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $290 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $288 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $281 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/m9/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $905 $1,394 1.54x 2026-11-07 19:03 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $905 $965 1.07x 2026-11-10 17:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=m9)

[★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $905 $288 0.32x 2026-11-10 17:36 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $905 $965 1.07x 2026-11-10 17:36 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $905 $1,394 1.54x 2026-11-07 19:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $905 | 92.46% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $905 | 94.00% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 52.4% Covert 14.2% Knives 2.2% covert knife 6.1% Immortal 3.3% #ffd700 7.4% sunny 11.1% knifes 3.3% best hit $1,394 (1.54x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.46 on average: an expected loss of $7.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt