---
title: "Mac 10 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mac 10 ($0.78) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.52% from 36 items with odds, observed 103.65% over 146 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mac 10](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mac 10

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10?window=all)

Price · $0.78

Advertised RTP · 94.52% · EV $0.74 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 103.65% · 146 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 146 openings · below min

30 days · 146 openings · below min

since tracking started · 146 openings · below min

-0.5% 77.3% 155.0%

**Small sample.** 146 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10?window=24h) | 5 | 61.54% ±92.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10?window=7d) | 146 | 103.65% ±15.0 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10) | 146 | 103.65% ±15.0 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mac10?window=all) | 146 | 103.65% ±15.0 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $126 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $74.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $50.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $37.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27,778 | $25.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,048 | $19.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Commuter (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,695 | $13.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,132 | $8.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 948 | $7.43 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 395 | $5.32 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $4.38 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $3.12 | 3.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.74× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $2.59 | 4.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.64× |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $2.23 | 4.8% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1.76 | 6.0% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.36× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.45 | 6.4% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.47× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.24 | 7.6% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.15 | 7.3% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.97 | 9.9% | 15 | 11.0 | 1.36× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.87 | 9.8% | 9 | 12.2 | 0.74× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.85 | 9.2% | 11 | 11.7 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.70 | 3.6% | 12 | 5.5 | 2.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.57 | 2.9% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.53 | 2.7% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.48 | 2.5% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.41 | 2.1% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.33 | 1.7% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.29 | 1.5% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.26 | 1.3% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.25 | 1.3% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.27× |
| [MAC-10 \| Echoing Sands (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-echoing-sands-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 0.9% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 0.9% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 0.9% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.13 | 0.7% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.13 | 0.7% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.63× |
| [MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-snow-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.12 | 0.6% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mac10/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mac10)

[MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.78 $0.17 0.22x 2026-11-11 09:04 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.78 $0.97 1.24x 2026-11-11 09:04 UTC

[MAC-10 | Button Masher (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-minimal-wear) [Сергей Люлько](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9B%D1%8E%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE) $0.78 $0.87 1.12x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) [Luis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Luis) $0.78 $0.26 0.33x 2026-11-10 21:11 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-minimal-wear) [ЧАВО](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%90%D0%92%D0%9E) $0.78 $0.13 0.17x 2026-11-10 16:13 UTC

[MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) [Bosher](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Bosher) $0.78 $0.33 0.42x 2026-11-09 20:01 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) [Bosher](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Bosher) $0.78 $1.15 1.47x 2026-11-09 20:01 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-minimal-wear) [tedybear\_111](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/tedybear_111) $0.78 $0.17 0.22x 2026-11-09 19:19 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) [tedybear\_111](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/tedybear_111) $0.78 $0.97 1.24x 2026-11-09 19:19 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) [tedybear\_111](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/tedybear_111) $0.78 $0.70 0.90x 2026-11-09 19:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.78 | 94.52% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.78 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 3.8% covert 0.0% mil spec 16.6% restricted 8.0% Mythical 0.5% Industrial 0.0% violet 8.4% consumer 3.3% Rare 8.8% milspec 9.1% #8847ff 11.3% Uncommon 7.6% #4b69ff 7.6% industrial 7.6% blue 3.8% common 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.52 on average: an expected loss of $5.48 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt