---
title: "Machine case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Machine ($0.27) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.21% from 49 items with odds, observed 96.20% over 9,200 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Machine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Machine

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine?window=all)

Price · $0.27

Advertised RTP · 92.21% · EV $0.25 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.20% · 9,200 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 96.75% ±8.38 6,048 openings

30 days · 96.20% ±6.81 9,200 openings

since tracking started · 96.20% ±6.81 9,200 openings

-0.5% 143.0% 286.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine?window=24h) | 13 | 104.84% ±180.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine?window=7d) | 6,048 | 96.75% ±8.38 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine) | 9,200 | 96.20% ±6.81 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/machine?window=all) | 9,200 | 96.20% ±6.81 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,203 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $773 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $330 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $174 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $40.85 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $26.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $9.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 34,483 | $7.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17,241 | $6.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 11,364 | $6.22 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,711 | $4.46 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.19× |
| [G3SG1 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 3,623 | $3.45 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.57× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 2,825 | $3.02 | 0.4% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 1,597 | $2.16 | 0.5% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 797 | $1.91 | 1.0% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 494 | $1.54 | 1.3% | 17 | 18.6 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.97 | 3.2% | 88 | 74.7 | 1.18× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $0.92 | 2.5% | 71 | 62.6 | 1.13× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $0.82 | 2.3% | 60 | 65.0 | 0.92× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.82 | 2.3% | 89 | 63.8 | 1.40× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $0.65 | 2.6% | 101 | 93.4 | 1.08× |
| [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $0.62 | 2.8% | 91 | 103.0 | 0.88× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $0.59 | 2.9% | 112 | 114.4 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $0.53 | 3.9% | 168 | 170.4 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $0.50 | 3.2% | 140 | 144.5 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.48 | 2.7% | 144 | 128.0 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $0.45 | 2.7% | 140 | 135.8 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.44 | 3.3% | 197 | 170.4 | 1.16× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.42 | 3.8% | 207 | 204.8 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.40 | 4.4% | 291 | 252.2 | 1.15× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.35 | 4.4% | 290 | 289.9 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.35 | 3.9% | 260 | 252.2 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $0.34 | 3.2% | 202 | 213.1 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.31 | 3.3% | 247 | 241.4 | 1.02× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.30 | 4.2% | 338 | 320.4 | 1.05× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.26 | 4.3% | 382 | 377.1 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.25 | 4.4% | 435 | 400.9 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.23 | 4.0% | 388 | 400.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.20 | 3.5% | 443 | 400.9 | 1.11× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.20 | 3.5% | 387 | 400.7 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.17 | 3.0% | 394 | 401.7 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.16 | 2.8% | 399 | 402.6 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.12 | 2.1% | 385 | 403.3 | 0.95× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.12 | 2.1% | 409 | 402.2 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.09 | 1.6% | 396 | 405.1 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.06 | 1.1% | 398 | 407.1 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.03 | 0.5% | 373 | 410.6 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.02 | 0.4% | 386 | 412.7 | 0.94× |
| [Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-raw-ceramic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.01 | 0.2% | 382 | 416.3 | 0.92× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.01 | 0.2% | 361 | 416.3 | 0.87× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/machine/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=machine)

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) [aimlock](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/aimlock) $0.27 $0.16 0.59x 2026-11-11 10:34 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) [DimariK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DimariK) $0.27 $0.59 2.19x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Жұмабек Тұрарахмед](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D2%B1%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%BA%20%D0%A2%D2%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4) $0.27 $0.20 0.74x 2026-11-11 08:38 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [Жұмабек Тұрарахмед](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D2%B1%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%BA%20%D0%A2%D2%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4) $0.27 $0.82 3.04x 2026-11-11 08:38 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-factory-new) [Жұмабек Тұрарахмед](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D2%B1%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%BA%20%D0%A2%D2%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4) $0.27 $0.50 1.85x 2026-11-11 08:38 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) [Denman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Denman) $0.27 $0.03 0.11x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Burka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Burka) $0.27 $0.20 0.74x 2026-11-11 02:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Дора Балтика♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0%20%D0%91%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0%E2%99%A5) $0.27 $0.12 0.44x 2026-11-10 23:56 UTC

[P90 | Ancient Earth (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-well-worn) [wmd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/wmd) $0.27 $0.31 1.15x 2026-11-10 23:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $0.27 $0.12 0.44x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.27 | 92.21% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.27 | 94.77% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.4% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.0% Mil Spec 0.0% classified 0.0% restricted 4.2% mil spec 9.5% violet 1.9% Consumer Grade 6.9% #d32ee6 0.0% Restricted 0.1% blue 1.7% consumer 12.2% #4b69ff 5.6% milspec 9.7% Mythical 1.4% Rare 4.5% #B0C3D9 2.6% industrial 13.1% blueLight 4.4% #b0c3d9 8.9% #87c7ff 4.4% common 4.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.21 on average: an expected loss of $7.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt