---
title: "Man case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Man ($5.08) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.93% from 49 items with odds, observed 93.69% over 328 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Man](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Man

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man?window=all)

Price · $5.08

Advertised RTP · 93.93% · EV $4.77 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.69% · 328 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.98% ±23.36 109 openings

7 days · 92.61% ±18.86 167 openings

30 days · 93.69% ±13.43 328 openings

since tracking started · 93.69% ±13.43 328 openings

73.0% 97.0% 121.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man?window=24h) | 109 | 96.98% ±23.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man?window=7d) | 167 | 92.61% ±18.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man) | 328 | 93.69% ±13.4 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/man?window=all) | 328 | 93.69% ±13.4 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 328 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,949 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,079 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $576 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $488 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $232 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28,571 | $184 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31,250 | $161 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,129 | $132 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 14,706 | $128 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,615 | $111 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 3,279 | $72.29 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,387 | $61.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $49.22 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 693 | $47.21 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 587 | $40.84 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 550 | $37.05 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 446 | $34.36 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | $27.38 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 170 | $22.79 | 2.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $18.95 | 3.4% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.42× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $17.11 | 3.3% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.96× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $11.09 | 5.7% | 10 | 8.1 | 1.24× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.98 | 6.8% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $7.71 | 5.9% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.25 | 6.0% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.17× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $7.15 | 5.7% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.21× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $5.52 | 6.3% | 20 | 18.0 | 1.11× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $5.03 | 6.9% | 19 | 21.6 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $4.50 | 6.2% | 26 | 21.5 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.36 | 5.5% | 25 | 19.6 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $4.28 | 5.8% | 16 | 21.2 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.82 | 4.6% | 19 | 18.9 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $3.67 | 4.4% | 15 | 18.7 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.88 | 2.9% | 12 | 15.7 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $1.81 | 1.5% | 15 | 13.0 | 1.16× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.65 | 1.2% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $1.46 | 1.1% | 10 | 11.8 | 0.85× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $1.40 | 1.0% | 6 | 11.1 | 0.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $1.04 | 0.6% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.27× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $0.69 | 0.3% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $0.53 | 0.2% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $0.39 | 0.1% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.33 | 0.1% | 9 | 3.9 | 2.30× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 1 | 4.5 | 0.22× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $0.25 | 0.1% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $0.25 | 0.1% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.31× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $0.25 | 0.1% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/man/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=man)

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $1.81 0.36x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $0.53 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC

[MP7 | Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $7.98 1.57x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $4.50 0.89x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $4.36 0.86x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $3.67 0.72x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $7.71 1.52x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $4.36 0.86x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $3.67 0.72x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $5.08 $3.67 0.72x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.08 | 93.93% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.11 | 93.38% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.11 | 94.81% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% legendary 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert knife 0.0% classified 1.8% Covert 0.0% industrial 0.5% Immortal 0.0% rare 6.6% uncommon 3.6% Mythical 14.1% mil spec 9.0% consumer 9.5% violet 9.4% restricted 3.9% Classified 3.8% #d32ee6 6.6% #8847ff 4.8% blue 10.9% Restricted 3.6% pink 2.9% Rare 2.7% milspec 2.4% #4b69ff 1.4% Uncommon 1.4% Common 0.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.93 on average: an expected loss of $6.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt