---
title: "Marblefade case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Marblefade ($219.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.83% from 30 items with odds, observed 96.50% over 46 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Marblefade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Marblefade

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade?window=all)

Price · $219.99

Advertised RTP · 94.83% · EV $208.62 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.50% · 46 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 46 openings · below min

30 days · 46 openings · below min

since tracking started · 46 openings · below min

79.0% 96.5% 114.0%

**Small sample.** 46 openings and 13.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade?window=7d) | 46 | 96.50% ±16.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade) | 46 | 96.50% ±16.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/marblefade?window=all) | 46 | 96.50% ±16.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,976 | $1,635 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,245 | $1,394 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,447 | $1,324 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 649 | $1,079 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 370 | $949 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 244 | $722 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 191 | $663 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $532 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $464 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $421 | 4.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $357 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $340 | 4.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $332 | 4.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $307 | 6.5% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $275 | 6.8% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.64× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $252 | 7.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $237 | 8.1% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.80× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $184 | 4.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $179 | 4.2% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $172 | 4.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $172 | 4.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $162 | 3.8% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $158 | 3.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $133 | 3.1% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $124 | 2.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $123 | 2.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $120 | 2.8% | 7 | 2.3 | 3.07× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $110 | 2.6% | 6 | 2.3 | 2.64× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $85.41 | 2.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $82.12 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/marblefade/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $220 $722 3.28x 2026-11-06 19:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=marblefade)

[★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $220 $110 0.50x 2026-11-10 12:48 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $220 $275 1.25x 2026-11-08 20:05 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $220 $120 0.54x 2026-11-07 20:43 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $220 $110 0.50x 2026-11-07 19:04 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $220 $179 0.81x 2026-11-07 10:50 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $220 $82.12 0.37x 2026-11-07 10:50 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $220 $110 0.50x 2026-11-06 19:20 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $220 $133 0.60x 2026-11-06 19:20 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $220 $120 0.54x 2026-11-06 19:20 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $220 $120 0.54x 2026-11-06 19:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $220 | 94.83% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $220 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 1.0% covert 49.1% Covert 0.5% gold 14.5% extraordinary 7.6% legendary 3.1% rare 14.5% #ffd700 4.8% covert knife 4.8% best hit $722 (3.28x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.83 on average: an expected loss of $5.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt