---
title: "Megarushh case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Megarushh ($24.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.82% from 42 items with odds, observed 96.91% over 222 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Megarushh](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Megarushh

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh?window=all)

Price · $24.99

Advertised RTP · 92.82% · EV $23.20 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.91% · 222 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 64 openings · below min

7 days · 97.22% ±13.19 168 openings

30 days · 96.91% ±11.49 222 openings

since tracking started · 96.91% ±11.49 222 openings

78.0% 100.0% 122.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh?window=24h) | 64 | 100.19% ±21.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh?window=7d) | 168 | 97.22% ±13.2 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh) | 222 | 96.91% ±11.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/megarushh?window=all) | 222 | 96.91% ±11.5 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 222 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,856 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,193 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $721 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $576 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $431 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 16,949 | $329 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $241 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 3,236 | $196 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-field-tested) | 1 in 1,805 | $176 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 628 | $120 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 372 | $113 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 240 | $86.55 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $72.39 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.40× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $66.56 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $54.46 | 4.3% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.47× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $53.80 | 3.4% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $52.30 | 3.7% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $51.43 | 3.8% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $49.34 | 3.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $48.75 | 3.9% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.21× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $47.55 | 4.2% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $46.64 | 4.1% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $44.49 | 4.2% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $44.45 | 4.7% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $43.67 | 4.4% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $41.55 | 4.3% | 10 | 5.3 | 1.90× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $41.25 | 5.5% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $40.84 | 5.9% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.20× |
| [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $22.75 | 7.8% | 18 | 17.6 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $20.23 | 4.0% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $17.78 | 3.5% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.79× |
| [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $14.72 | 2.9% | 17 | 10.2 | 1.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $11.42 | 2.3% | 5 | 10.2 | 0.49× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $10.98 | 2.2% | 11 | 10.2 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.53 | 1.5% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $7.13 | 1.4% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.92 | 1.4% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $5.00 | 1.0% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.18× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $4.88 | 1.0% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.19 | 0.8% | 3 | 10.2 | 0.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.55 | 0.7% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.36 | 0.7% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.18× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/megarushh/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=megarushh)

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) [𓆩ҞȺŁɄ₲Ⱥ𓆪](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%93%86%A9%D2%9E%C8%BA%C5%81%C9%84%E2%82%B2%C8%BA%F0%93%86%AA) $24.99 $3.36 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) [𓆩ҞȺŁɄ₲Ⱥ𓆪](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%93%86%A9%D2%9E%C8%BA%C5%81%C9%84%E2%82%B2%C8%BA%F0%93%86%AA) $24.99 $14.72 0.59x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) [𓆩ҞȺŁɄ₲Ⱥ𓆪](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%93%86%A9%D2%9E%C8%BA%C5%81%C9%84%E2%82%B2%C8%BA%F0%93%86%AA) $24.99 $7.13 0.29x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) [𓆩ҞȺŁɄ₲Ⱥ𓆪](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%93%86%A9%D2%9E%C8%BA%C5%81%C9%84%E2%82%B2%C8%BA%F0%93%86%AA) $24.99 $54.46 2.18x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) [Phoenix](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Phoenix) $24.99 $7.13 0.29x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) [Phoenix](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Phoenix) $24.99 $4.88 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) [Phoenix](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Phoenix) $24.99 $4.88 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [Phoenix](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Phoenix) $24.99 $66.56 2.66x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) [verity from minecraft](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/verity%20from%20minecraft) $24.99 $7.53 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [verity from minecraft](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/verity%20from%20minecraft) $24.99 $43.67 1.75x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $24.99 | 92.82% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $24.99 | 93.92% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.1% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 13.8% epic 0.1% classified 4.7% Immortal 2.6% covert knife 11.1% Covert 4.5% gold 4.0% mil spec 7.9% Restricted 4.6% industrial 4.6% Industrial Grade 4.6% #d32ce6 4.6% #87c7ff 4.6% pink 4.6% #d32ee6 4.6% Legendary 4.6% blue 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.82 on average: an expected loss of $7.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt