---
title: "Mellstroy case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mellstroy ($49.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.65% from 42 items with odds, observed 89.14% over 501 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mellstroy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mellstroy

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy?window=all)

Price · $49.99

Advertised RTP · 92.65% · EV $46.32 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.14% · 501 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 88.85% ±7.26 463 openings

30 days · 89.14% ±6.98 501 openings

since tracking started · 89.14% ±6.98 501 openings

46.0% 71.5% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy?window=24h) | 57 | 67.55% ±20.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy?window=7d) | 463 | 88.85% ±7.26 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy) | 501 | 89.14% ±6.98 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mellstroy?window=all) | 501 | 89.14% ±6.98 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 501 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,029 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,621 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $1,120 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $900 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 28,571 | $726 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,623 | $488 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,378 | $400 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,468 | $317 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 663 | $236 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 376 | $217 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 236 | $170 | 1.6% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $136 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $123 | 2.6% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $120 | 3.1% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $118 | 2.6% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.40× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $110 | 2.7% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $106 | 3.2% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $104 | 3.5% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $99.28 | 3.1% | 2 | 7.3 | 0.27× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $90.38 | 3.5% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.89× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $86.43 | 5.0% | 8 | 13.4 | 0.60× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $85.41 | 4.5% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.97× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $84.70 | 4.4% | 12 | 12.0 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $83.57 | 4.8% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.05× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $82.12 | 4.6% | 16 | 13.0 | 1.24× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $79.44 | 5.1% | 11 | 15.0 | 0.73× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $66.48 | 6.6% | 22 | 23.0 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $53.91 | 9.2% | 44 | 39.7 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $44.95 | 4.4% | 31 | 23.0 | 1.35× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $32.21 | 3.2% | 19 | 23.0 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $31.86 | 3.2% | 15 | 23.0 | 0.65× |
| [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $26.50 | 2.6% | 31 | 23.0 | 1.35× |
| [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $23.37 | 2.3% | 20 | 23.0 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $17.40 | 1.7% | 37 | 23.0 | 1.61× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $15.79 | 1.6% | 17 | 23.0 | 0.74× |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $14.46 | 1.4% | 27 | 23.0 | 1.18× |
| [AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $12.75 | 1.3% | 30 | 23.0 | 1.31× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $9.58 | 0.9% | 21 | 23.0 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $8.30 | 0.8% | 19 | 23.0 | 0.83× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $8.26 | 0.8% | 30 | 23.0 | 1.31× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $6.91 | 0.7% | 16 | 23.0 | 0.70× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mellstroy/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mellstroy)

[AUG | Wings (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-minimal-wear) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $12.75 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $15.79 0.32x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

[Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $14.46 0.29x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $17.40 0.35x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

[AUG | Wings (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-minimal-wear) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $12.75 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $53.91 1.08x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

[Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-factory-new) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $8.30 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

[AUG | Wings (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-minimal-wear) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $12.75 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $82.12 1.64x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $49.99 $44.95 0.90x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $49.99 | 92.65% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $49.99 | 94.38% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 35.3% extraordinary 2.5% legendary 0.0% rare 1.1% epic 0.4% gold 1.4% sunny 1.6% Mythical 2.7% restricted 9.2% Ancient 4.6% Mil Spec 4.6% mil spec 9.2% Mil Spec Grade 13.8% milspec 4.6% Common 4.6% industrial 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.65 on average: an expected loss of $7.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt