--- title: "Militia case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Militia ($5.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.26% from 21 items with odds, observed 101.93% over 69 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Militia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Militia A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia?window=all) Price · $5.49 Advertised RTP · 92.26% · EV $5.07 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.93% · 69 openings, sample method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 69 openings · below min 30 days · 69 openings · below min since tracking started · 69 openings · below min 72.5% 101.8% 131.0% **Small sample.** 69 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia?window=7d) | 69 | 101.93% ±28.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia) | 69 | 101.93% ±28.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/militia?window=all) | 69 | 101.93% ±28.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 69 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [PP-Bizon \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $411 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,194 | $124 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $79.47 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 740 | $61.46 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 807 | $60.32 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 655 | $50.27 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [XM1014 \| Grassland (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-factory-new) | 1 in 29,412 | $46.93 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 304 | $38.85 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $26.50 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $24.88 | 4.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $23.37 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $23.02 | 3.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $20.70 | 4.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $14.64 | 6.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $7.65 | 9.8% | 8 | 4.5 | 1.79× | | [MAC-10 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $7.25 | 9.3% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 11.1% | $4.95 | 10.8% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.31× | | [XM1014 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $4.56 | 10.4% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.26× | | [MAC-10 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-field-tested) | 18.2% | $2.21 | 8.0% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× | | [XM1014 \| Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-field-tested) | 18.5% | $2.19 | 8.0% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× | | [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.86 | 7.4% | 14 | 13.8 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/militia/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=militia) [XM1014 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-minimal-wear) [Soul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Soul) $5.49 $4.56 0.83x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC [PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) [MaXuHaToP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MaXuHaToP) $5.49 $1.86 0.34x 2026-11-06 20:22 UTC [MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $2.28 0.42x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $1.97 0.36x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [XM1014 | Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $2.24 0.41x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [XM1014 | Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $2.24 0.41x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $1.97 0.36x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [XM1014 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $4.68 0.85x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $2.28 0.42x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [XM1014 | Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $2.24 0.41x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $5.49 | 92.26% | 21 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.49 | 94.00% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 2.2% restricted 0.3% industrial 7.6% classified 2.3% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% Consumer Grade 56.7% Mil Spec 0.7% consumer 18.0% #B0C3D9 11.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.26 on average: an expected loss of $7.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt