---
title: "Milspec case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Milspec ($0.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.65% from 38 items with odds, observed 92.97% over 1,245 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Milspec](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Milspec

A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec?window=all)

Price · $0.99

Advertised RTP · 93.65% · EV $0.93 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.97% · 1,245 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 55.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 101.20% ±17.58 127 openings

7 days · 92.97% ±5.62 1,245 openings

30 days · 92.97% ±5.62 1,245 openings

since tracking started · 92.97% ±5.62 1,245 openings

83.0% 101.3% 119.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec?window=24h) | 127 | 101.20% ±17.6 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec?window=7d) | 1,245 | 92.97% ±5.62 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec) | 1,245 | 92.97% ±5.62 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/milspec?window=all) | 1,245 | 92.97% ±5.62 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,080 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $144 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $108 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $64.93 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $47.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $35.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 19,608 | $26.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,264 | $19.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 3,436 | $13.33 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 1,546 | $10.22 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 747 | $7.81 | 1.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.44× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Scale (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-scale-factory-new) | 1 in 352 | $5.65 | 1.7% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $4.76 | 2.9% | 16 | 11.6 | 1.38× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 119 | $3.90 | 3.5% | 18 | 17.4 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $3.07 | 4.2% | 35 | 26.6 | 1.31× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $2.55 | 5.0% | 33 | 38.1 | 0.87× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $2.05 | 5.7% | 64 | 53.9 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $1.74 | 6.3% | 67 | 69.5 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.39 | 8.5% | 108 | 118.6 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.37 | 6.7% | 92 | 94.4 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.16 | 8.6% | 137 | 142.7 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.15 | 10.0% | 162 | 166.9 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.10 | 10.0% | 191 | 175.3 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| 2A2F (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.89 | 3.3% | 86 | 72.1 | 1.19× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.77 | 2.9% | 55 | 72.1 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.64 | 2.4% | 70 | 72.1 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.63 | 2.4% | 84 | 72.1 | 1.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.48 | 1.8% | 71 | 72.1 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.47 | 1.8% | 57 | 72.1 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.41 | 1.5% | 71 | 72.1 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.35 | 1.3% | 68 | 72.1 | 0.94× |
| [P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.30 | 1.1% | 73 | 72.1 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.28 | 1.0% | 79 | 72.1 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.25 | 0.9% | 75 | 72.1 | 1.04× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.23 | 0.9% | 58 | 72.1 | 0.80× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.22 | 0.8% | 63 | 72.1 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.17 | 0.6% | 81 | 72.1 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.16 | 0.6% | 77 | 72.1 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.14 | 0.5% | 76 | 72.2 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/milspec/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=milspec)

[Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-minimal-wear) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.99 $0.64 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-minimal-wear) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $0.99 $0.89 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $0.99 $0.77 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $0.99 $1.15 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $0.99 $0.16 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $0.99 $1.10 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $0.99 $0.63 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $0.99 $0.77 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $0.99 $1.10 1.11x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $0.99 $1.39 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.99 | 93.65% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.99 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 15.3% #4b69ff 35.9% blue 14.6% milspec 11.7% Rare 22.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.65 on average: an expected loss of $6.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt