---
title: "Mindgames case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mindgames ($1.81) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.58% from 49 items with odds, observed 98.09% over 784 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mindgames](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mindgames

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames?window=all)

Price · $1.81

Advertised RTP · 93.58% · EV $1.69 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.09% · 784 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 95.56% ±11.91 394 openings

30 days · 98.09% ±8.49 784 openings

since tracking started · 98.09% ±8.49 784 openings

83.0% 95.5% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames?window=7d) | 394 | 95.56% ±11.9 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames) | 784 | 98.09% ±8.49 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mindgames?window=all) | 784 | 98.09% ±8.49 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 784 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $726 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $722 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $226 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $136 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $133 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 41,667 | $57.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 30,303 | $53.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 13,514 | $42.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 6,757 | $32.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,021 | $23.36 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 2,370 | $20.19 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 1,484 | $17.11 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 539 | $11.75 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 374 | $10.28 | 1.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 281 | $9.56 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 319 | $9.13 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 202 | $6.89 | 2.0% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 170 | $6.70 | 2.3% | 9 | 4.6 | 1.96× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 117 | $5.81 | 2.9% | 11 | 6.7 | 1.65× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 113 | $5.42 | 2.8% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $5.13 | 2.6% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.33× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $4.80 | 2.9% | 10 | 8.1 | 1.23× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $4.45 | 3.0% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $4.22 | 3.1% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $3.78 | 3.3% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $3.75 | 3.2% | 13 | 11.3 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $3.32 | 3.5% | 20 | 14.2 | 1.41× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $3.29 | 3.7% | 11 | 14.9 | 0.74× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $3.02 | 3.5% | 21 | 15.3 | 1.37× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $2.70 | 3.8% | 14 | 18.6 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.24 | 4.6% | 31 | 27.0 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $2.20 | 3.8% | 27 | 23.1 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.91 | 4.8% | 37 | 33.4 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1.85 | 5.1% | 41 | 36.3 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.54 | 4.2% | 37 | 36.1 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.44 | 3.9% | 42 | 36.1 | 1.16× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.43 | 3.9% | 32 | 36.0 | 0.89× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.25 | 3.4% | 30 | 35.7 | 0.84× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1.24 | 3.3% | 33 | 35.6 | 0.93× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1.09 | 2.9% | 36 | 35.5 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.62 | 1.6% | 31 | 34.5 | 0.90× |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.62 | 1.6% | 27 | 34.6 | 0.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.48 | 1.3% | 40 | 34.7 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.44 | 1.1% | 38 | 34.0 | 1.12× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.35 | 0.9% | 23 | 33.6 | 0.68× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.34 | 0.9% | 26 | 33.8 | 0.77× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.30 | 0.8% | 38 | 33.2 | 1.14× |
| [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 0.2% | 31 | 30.8 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 18 | 28.3 | 0.64× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mindgames/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mindgames)

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-well-worn) [-rep](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/-rep) $1.81 $1.24 0.69x 2026-11-10 04:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) [kokftyhb](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kokftyhb) $1.81 $1.85 1.02x 2026-11-06 14:05 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) [kokftyhb](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kokftyhb) $1.81 $2.70 1.49x 2026-11-06 14:05 UTC

[Galil AR | Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) [kokftyhb](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kokftyhb) $1.81 $1.54 0.85x 2026-11-06 14:05 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-minimal-wear) [kokftyhb](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kokftyhb) $1.81 $0.30 0.17x 2026-11-06 14:05 UTC

[AUG | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) [kokftyhb](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kokftyhb) $1.81 $1.44 0.80x 2026-11-06 14:05 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) [\_\_SeB4iK\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/__SeB4iK__) $1.86 $6.70 3.60x 2026-11-05 18:11 UTC

[M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) [\_\_SeB4iK\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/__SeB4iK__) $1.86 $1.25 0.67x 2026-11-05 18:11 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-minimal-wear) [\_\_SeB4iK\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/__SeB4iK__) $1.86 $0.30 0.16x 2026-11-05 18:11 UTC

[AUG | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) [\_\_SeB4iK\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/__SeB4iK__) $1.86 $1.44 0.77x 2026-11-05 18:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.81 | 93.58% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.86 | 91.06% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.86 | 92.82% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.9% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.0% Covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% classified 2.2% restricted 22.5% Mythical 5.8% Industrial Grade 0.9% pink 2.0% #4B69FF 1.2% Legendary 2.9% #d32ee6 2.0% mil spec 11.4% #8847ff 3.4% Rare 7.2% blue 12.9% #4b69ff 9.0% Restricted 4.5% violet 4.3% consumer 3.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.58 on average: an expected loss of $6.42 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt