---
title: "Mirage case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mirage ($15.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 99.13% from 32 items with odds, observed 93.49% over 35 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mirage

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage?window=all)

Price · $15.99

Advertised RTP · 99.13% · EV $15.85 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.49% · 35 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 35 openings · below min

30 days · 35 openings · below min

since tracking started · 35 openings · below min

72.5% 93.5% 114.5%

**Small sample.** 35 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage?window=7d) | 35 | 93.49% ±20.6 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage) | 35 | 93.49% ±20.6 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage?window=all) | 35 | 93.49% ±20.6 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $257 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31,250 | $217 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 22,222 | $193 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 688 | $84.46 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 424 | $58.81 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198 | $45.44 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 168 | $42.26 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $41.61 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $39.96 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $34.85 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $27.20 | 10.2% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.44× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $23.12 | 3.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [AUG \| Colony (Factory New) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $21.72 | 4.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $21.28 | 4.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $19.80 | 5.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $18.89 | 5.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $18.69 | 7.3% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $18.00 | 5.7% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.40 | 5.5% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $15.74 | 6.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $15.40 | 5.9% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $15.21 | 5.8% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $14.77 | 5.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $14.28 | 5.6% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.37× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $11.21 | 3.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Hunting Blind (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-hunting-blind-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $5.90 | 1.4% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.22× |
| [P250 \| Bone Mask (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $4.07 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.76× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $3.54 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [P90 \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $3.13 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $3.04 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $2.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $2.39 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mirage/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mirage)

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $2.71 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $16.49 1.03x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $14.33 0.90x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[MP7 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $16.79 1.05x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $2.71 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $2.17 0.14x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $14.24 0.89x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $23.61 1.48x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[P250 | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $4.13 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $19.18 1.20x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $15.99 | 99.13% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $15.99 | 94.00% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 0.9% mil spec 11.8% industrial 37.0% milspec 0.5% consumer 18.7% Consumer 3.1% other 3.3% #5E98D9 4.2% Industrial Grade 6.2% Uncommon 6.0% #8847ff 5.3% Common 2.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 99.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $99.13 on average: an expected loss of $0.87 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt