--- title: "Mirage 2021 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mirage 2021 ($11.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.78% from 31 items with odds, observed 79.83% over 58 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mirage 2021](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mirage 2021 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021?window=all) Price · $11.99 Advertised RTP · 90.78% · EV $10.88 from 31 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.83% · 58 openings, sample method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 58 openings · below min 30 days · 58 openings · below min since tracking started · 58 openings · below min 59.5% 79.8% 100.0% **Small sample.** 58 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021?window=7d) | 58 | 79.83% ±19.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021) | 58 | 79.83% ±19.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mirage2021?window=all) | 58 | 79.83% ±19.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,401 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,207 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,031 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $317 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18,519 | $218 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 12,346 | $170 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 10,638 | $167 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,155 | $154 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 4,464 | $138 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 701 | $81.49 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $32.80 | 6.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.69× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $28.04 | 6.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $27.57 | 6.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× | | [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.40 | 7.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $24.40 | 8.8% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $23.46 | 7.8% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $18.79 | 13.2% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.35× | | [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $18.10 | 12.7% | 8 | 4.4 | 1.81× | | [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $18.09 | 12.6% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.37 | 2.9% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [MP9 \| Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.36 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [M249 \| Humidor (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.52 | 1.6% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.44 | 1.6% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [MP9 \| Music Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.96 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.85 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [M249 \| Humidor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.82 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.79 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.28 | 1.0% | 7 | 2.9 | 2.43× | | [FAMAS \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.20 | 1.0% | 8 | 2.9 | 2.78× | | [MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.16 | 1.0% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.74× | | [Dual Berettas \| Drift Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-drift-wood-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.28 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mirage2021/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mirage2021) [SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $3.44 0.29x 2026-11-09 15:04 UTC [FAMAS | CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $2.20 0.18x 2026-11-09 15:04 UTC [MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-field-tested) [Polughoul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Polughoul) $11.99 $2.16 0.18x 2026-11-08 01:13 UTC [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $11.99 $6.11 0.51x 2026-11-05 20:09 UTC [SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $11.99 $3.40 0.28x 2026-11-05 20:09 UTC [XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $11.99 $18.83 1.57x 2026-11-05 20:09 UTC [MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $11.99 $2.25 0.19x 2026-11-05 20:09 UTC [MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $11.99 $6.27 0.52x 2026-11-05 20:09 UTC [MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $11.99 $2.25 0.19x 2026-11-05 20:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $11.99 $25.29 2.11x 2026-11-05 20:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $11.99 | 90.78% | 31 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $11.99 | 94.00% | 31 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 8.3% mil spec 17.2% violet 10.7% Restricted 11.5% Mythical 7.6% Rare 14.9% #4b69ff 9.9% blue 9.9% industrial 5.0% Uncommon 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.78 on average: an expected loss of $9.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt