---
title: "Mongolz team case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mongolz team ($3.20) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.87% from 42 items with odds, observed 90.76% over 153 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mongolz team](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mongolz team

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team?window=all)

Price · $3.20

Advertised RTP · 93.87% · EV $3.00 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.76% · 153 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 7 openings · below min

7 days · 91 openings · below min

30 days · 90.76% ±29.05 153 openings

since tracking started · 90.76% ±29.05 153 openings

-0.5% 95.8% 192.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team?window=24h) | 7 | 55.40% ±135.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team?window=7d) | 91 | 85.20% ±37.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team) | 153 | 90.76% ±29.1 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mongolz-team?window=all) | 153 | 90.76% ±29.1 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 153 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,252 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,733 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,695 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,401 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $848 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $488 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $423 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $165 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $122 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,475 | $82.19 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 7,874 | $69.68 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 4,608 | $58.58 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 2,212 | $55.86 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 2,451 | $49.37 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $13.82 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $9.46 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $8.58 | 3.8% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $6.29 | 5.1% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.60× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $6.14 | 4.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $6.10 | 5.2% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.78× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.05 | 5.0% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $4.27 | 6.0% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.11 | 7.0% | 10 | 7.9 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $3.91 | 6.1% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.67 | 6.2% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.54 | 5.9% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.13 | 6.5% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $2.28 | 3.8% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.17× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $2.20 | 3.3% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.06 | 3.5% | 3 | 7.8 | 0.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.92 | 2.9% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.51 | 2.0% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.47× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1.38 | 1.7% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.52× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.37 | 1.7% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.24 | 1.5% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1.15 | 1.3% | 10 | 5.3 | 1.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.15 | 1.3% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.04 | 1.2% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.76× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.87 | 0.9% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.86 | 0.8% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.82 | 0.8% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $0.58 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mongolz_team/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mongolz-team)

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $3.20 $0.82 0.26x 2026-11-10 18:07 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $3.20 $1.04 0.33x 2026-11-10 18:07 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $3.20 $3.54 1.11x 2026-11-10 18:07 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $3.20 $1.37 0.43x 2026-11-10 18:07 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $3.20 $1.15 0.36x 2026-11-10 18:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $3.20 $0.58 0.18x 2026-11-10 18:07 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $3.20 $3.91 1.22x 2026-11-10 18:07 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $3.20 $6.10 1.91x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [fearless god.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fearless%20god.) $3.20 $0.82 0.26x 2026-11-09 09:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [fearless god.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fearless%20god.) $3.20 $1.24 0.39x 2026-11-09 09:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.20 | 93.87% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.20 | 96.75% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% legendary 0.0% sunny 0.0% Covert 0.0% Immortal 0.0% rare 0.0% classified 7.7% uncommon 7.1% #d32ee6 1.3% restricted 6.7% violet 14.6% pink 19.4% Legendary 8.8% #8847ff 13.9% Mythical 7.9% Rare 4.5% blue 4.0% mil spec 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.87 on average: an expected loss of $6.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt