--- title: "Monopoly case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Monopoly ($0.45) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.85% from 42 items with odds, observed 96.36% over 1,801 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Monopoly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Monopoly A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly?window=all) Price · $0.45 Advertised RTP · 92.85% · EV $0.42 from 42 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.36% · 1,801 openings, odds method Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.40% ±32.64 265 openings 7 days · 94.45% ±14.67 1,344 openings 30 days · 96.36% ±12.83 1,801 openings since tracking started · 96.36% ±12.83 1,801 openings 51.0% 84.3% 117.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly?window=24h) | 265 | 84.40% ±32.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly?window=7d) | 1,344 | 94.45% ±14.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly) | 1,801 | 96.36% ±12.8 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/monopoly?window=all) | 1,801 | 96.36% ±12.8 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,801 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $816 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $642 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $244 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $99.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $93.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $46.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $44.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $34.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 83,333 | $30.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 62,500 | $23.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 32,258 | $17.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18,868 | $13.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,346 | $13.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 10,870 | $11.48 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17,241 | $11.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,333 | $11.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,876 | $8.28 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,546 | $7.00 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,715 | $5.68 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.95× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 840 | $4.24 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 721 | $3.88 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 547 | $3.73 | 1.6% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 191 | $2.53 | 3.2% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $1.83 | 3.4% | 18 | 13.8 | 1.30× | | [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $1.37 | 5.3% | 37 | 29.3 | 1.26× | | [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $1.32 | 4.7% | 29 | 26.9 | 1.08× | | [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $1.15 | 4.9% | 32 | 32.1 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.87 | 6.8% | 65 | 58.7 | 1.11× | | [Galil AR \| Galigator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.64 | 9.5% | 126 | 112.3 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.53 | 8.4% | 121 | 119.3 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.44 | 8.8% | 144 | 150.3 | 0.96× | | [MAC-10 \| Allure (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.36 | 7.2% | 153 | 150.5 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.35 | 6.1% | 107 | 132.1 | 0.81× | | [P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.30 | 6.1% | 132 | 152.2 | 0.87× | | [Sticker \| zweih \| Austin 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zweih-austin-2025) | 1 in 29 | $0.21 | 1.7% | 70 | 62.4 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.21 | 3.5% | 120 | 125.8 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.20 | 3.2% | 127 | 121.3 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.17 | 2.4% | 105 | 106.0 | 0.99× | | [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.17 | 2.6% | 122 | 116.5 | 1.05× | | [P2000 \| Marsh (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.14 | 1.9% | 103 | 100.1 | 1.03× | | [P2000 \| Grip Tape (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.14 | 1.9% | 91 | 103.1 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 26 | $0.04 | 0.4% | 80 | 68.2 | 1.17× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/monopoly/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=monopoly) [Sticker | Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC [Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.45 $0.21 0.47x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC [Sticker | Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC [Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-field-tested) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.45 $0.21 0.47x 2026-11-11 02:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-well-worn) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.45 $0.36 0.80x 2026-11-11 02:54 UTC [P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.45 $0.30 0.67x 2026-11-11 02:54 UTC [FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.45 $1.37 3.04x 2026-11-11 02:54 UTC [Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-field-tested) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.45 $0.21 0.47x 2026-11-11 02:53 UTC [Galil AR | Galigator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-battle-scarred) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.45 $0.64 1.42x 2026-11-11 02:53 UTC [Galil AR | Galigator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-battle-scarred) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.45 $0.64 1.42x 2026-11-11 02:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.45 | 92.85% | 42 | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.43 | 97.17% | 42 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.43 | 96.43% | 42 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.0% covert 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% red 0.0% Legendary 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.6% restricted 20.0% uncommon 0.0% #d32ee6 0.1% Mythical 0.0% pink 0.2% milspec 7.2% violet 6.0% #4b69ff 7.4% #d32ce6 1.8% #8847ff 6.2% blue 14.0% mil spec 8.5% other 3.5% Rare 6.7% Uncommon 12.4% #5e98d9 5.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.85 on average: an expected loss of $7.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt