---
title: "Morphilina case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Morphilina ($1.29) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.98% from 42 items with odds, observed 95.73% over 3,746 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Morphilina](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Morphilina

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina?window=all)

Price · $1.29

Advertised RTP · 91.98% · EV $1.19 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.73% · 3,746 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.17% ±8.42 376 openings

7 days · 96.22% ±3.07 2,825 openings

30 days · 95.73% ±2.68 3,746 openings

since tracking started · 95.73% ±2.68 3,746 openings

83.0% 92.0% 101.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.26% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.05% – 98.40%, 3,746 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina?window=24h) | 376 | 92.17% ±8.42 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina?window=7d) | 2,825 | 96.22% ±3.07 | +2.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina) | 3,746 | 95.73% ±2.68 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/morphilina?window=all) | 3,746 | 95.73% ±2.68 | +2.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,747 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-pillow-punchers-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $411 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $49.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $41.62 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $29.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 52,632 | $21.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 20,833 | $18.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $13.17 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,959 | $9.04 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,739 | $8.64 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 619 | $5.83 | 0.8% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.83× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 378 | $5.52 | 1.2% | 18 | 9.9 | 1.82× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 287 | $5.15 | 1.5% | 12 | 13.0 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 310 | $4.98 | 1.4% | 11 | 12.1 | 0.91× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 287 | $4.76 | 1.4% | 19 | 13.0 | 1.46× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $4.67 | 1.4% | 13 | 13.1 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 1 in 279 | $4.38 | 1.3% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $3.78 | 2.2% | 33 | 26.4 | 1.25× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $2.70 | 4.1% | 49 | 66.8 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $2.68 | 3.2% | 60 | 53.9 | 1.11× |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $2.66 | 1.9% | 40 | 32.1 | 1.24× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $2.44 | 4.8% | 104 | 88.2 | 1.18× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.31 | 3.9% | 81 | 74.5 | 1.09× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $2.30 | 4.5% | 102 | 87.3 | 1.17× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.84 | 5.3% | 139 | 128.6 | 1.08× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.79 | 8.3% | 194 | 206.4 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $1.66 | 7.3% | 186 | 194.3 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.54 | 7.6% | 253 | 219.7 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.43 | 9.2% | 302 | 286.4 | 1.05× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.15 | 4.1% | 153 | 157.0 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.95 | 3.4% | 157 | 157.0 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.87 | 3.1% | 155 | 157.0 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.83 | 2.9% | 143 | 157.0 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.64 | 2.3% | 152 | 157.0 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.59 | 2.1% | 166 | 157.0 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.58 | 2.0% | 138 | 157.0 | 0.88× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.48 | 1.7% | 152 | 157.0 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.47 | 1.7% | 151 | 157.0 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.36 | 1.3% | 161 | 157.0 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.31 | 1.1% | 152 | 157.0 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.29 | 1.0% | 133 | 157.0 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.18 | 0.6% | 157 | 157.0 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tiger-stencil-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.12 | 0.4% | 137 | 157.0 | 0.87× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/morphilina/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=morphilina)

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $0.64 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $1.79 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $1.54 1.19x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $1.79 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $0.36 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $0.64 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $0.18 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Galil AR | Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $1.54 1.19x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $4.67 3.62x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-factory-new) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.29 $0.47 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.29 | 91.98% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.29 | 93.61% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Immortal 0.0% Legendary 0.7% Rare 5.6% classified 0.0% industrial 4.2% restricted 10.0% mil spec 16.5% consumer 5.7% Consumer Grade 0.3% #B0C3D9 0.3% gray 0.3% Mythical 14.2% blue 2.0% #8847ff 18.1% Mil Spec Grade 5.2% violet 12.6% #4b69ff 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.98 on average: an expected loss of $8.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt