---
title: "Mouz team case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mouz team ($1.65) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.69% from 42 items with odds, observed 88.91% over 339 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mouz team](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mouz team

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team?window=all)

Price · $1.65

Advertised RTP · 93.69% · EV $1.55 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.91% · 339 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 88.81% ±24.61 334 openings

30 days · 88.91% ±24.43 339 openings

since tracking started · 88.91% ±24.43 339 openings

-0.5% 196.3% 393.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team?window=24h) | 2 | 72.73% ±319.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team?window=7d) | 334 | 88.81% ±24.6 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team) | 339 | 88.91% ±24.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mouz-team?window=all) | 339 | 88.91% ±24.4 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 339 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,618 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,502 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Factory New) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-red-racer-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,277 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $531 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $351 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $249 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 166,667 | $129 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 66,667 | $71.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $67.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,638 | $39.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 8,403 | $35.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 9,434 | $35.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,004 | $22.37 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 555 | $14.19 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 499 | $11.27 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 414 | $11.21 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $8.58 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 155 | $6.96 | 2.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $6.13 | 2.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $5.08 | 3.5% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.27× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $4.68 | 3.6% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $4.49 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $4.07 | 3.7% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $3.67 | 4.0% | 9 | 5.8 | 1.56× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $3.47 | 4.6% | 11 | 6.9 | 1.59× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $3.43 | 4.3% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.50 | 4.9% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $2.08 | 5.3% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.04 | 5.5% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.02 | 5.5% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.70× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.50 | 5.9% | 18 | 20.5 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.10 | 4.3% | 27 | 20.5 | 1.32× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.08 | 4.2% | 20 | 20.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.04 | 4.1% | 15 | 20.5 | 0.73× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.97 | 3.8% | 21 | 20.4 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.90 | 3.5% | 19 | 20.4 | 0.93× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.79 | 3.1% | 23 | 20.4 | 1.13× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.60 | 2.3% | 27 | 20.3 | 1.33× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.56 | 2.2% | 12 | 20.2 | 0.59× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.49 | 1.9% | 22 | 20.2 | 1.09× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.36 | 1.4% | 26 | 20.1 | 1.29× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.32 | 1.2% | 18 | 20.0 | 0.90× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mouz_team/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mouz-team)

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $1.65 $2.08 1.26x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-battle-scarred) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $1.65 $0.32 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.65 $0.49 0.30x 2026-11-10 11:56 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.65 $0.56 0.34x 2026-11-10 11:56 UTC

[USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.65 $1.08 0.65x 2026-11-10 11:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.65 $2.08 1.26x 2026-11-10 11:55 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.65 $0.79 0.48x 2026-11-10 11:55 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.65 $2.50 1.52x 2026-11-10 11:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.65 $0.90 0.55x 2026-11-10 11:54 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.65 $0.36 0.22x 2026-11-10 11:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.65 | 93.69% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.68 | 92.02% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.68 | 92.85% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 6.0% covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.0% mil spec 6.1% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 1.7% uncommon 0.9% classified 7.4% #8847ff 18.3% #d32ee6 0.3% pink 0.6% #d32ce6 2.6% restricted 21.9% violet 4.2% Mythical 6.1% milspec 11.9% Rare 5.9% blue 5.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.69 on average: an expected loss of $6.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt