---
title: "Mp 5 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mp 5 ($0.25) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 97.60% from 36 items with odds, observed 97.48% over 1,854 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mp 5](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mp 5

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5?window=all)

Price · $0.25

Advertised RTP · 97.60% · EV $0.24 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.48% · 1,854 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 53.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 101.05% ±21.83 126 openings

7 days · 97.48% ±5.69 1,854 openings

30 days · 97.48% ±5.69 1,854 openings

since tracking started · 97.48% ±5.69 1,854 openings

78.5% 101.0% 123.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5?window=24h) | 126 | 101.05% ±21.8 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5?window=7d) | 1,854 | 97.48% ±5.69 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5) | 1,854 | 97.48% ±5.69 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp5?window=all) | 1,854 | 97.48% ±5.69 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,914 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $154 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $14.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $12.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $10.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18,182 | $7.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 3,610 | $4.31 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,805 | $3.21 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 1,178 | $2.66 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 470 | $1.89 | 1.6% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.47× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 228 | $1.46 | 2.6% | 10 | 8.4 | 1.19× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $1.05 | 3.5% | 17 | 15.5 | 1.10× |
| [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.91 | 4.2% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $0.71 | 4.7% | 31 | 30.9 | 1.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $0.59 | 5.4% | 53 | 43.1 | 1.23× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $0.54 | 5.8% | 48 | 50.0 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.37 | 7.2% | 82 | 91.4 | 0.90× |
| [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.35 | 7.9% | 125 | 105.5 | 1.18× |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.31 | 8.7% | 125 | 130.6 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.30 | 7.1% | 98 | 111.0 | 0.88× |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.29 | 9.7% | 149 | 156.6 | 0.95× |
| [MP5-SD \| Statics (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.29 | 7.7% | 119 | 123.5 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.21 | 3.3% | 80 | 72.7 | 1.10× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 2.6% | 72 | 72.7 | 0.99× |
| [MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-snow-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.13 | 2.0% | 61 | 72.7 | 0.84× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.13 | 2.0% | 72 | 72.7 | 0.99× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.13 | 2.0% | 85 | 72.7 | 1.17× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.10 | 1.6% | 66 | 72.7 | 0.91× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.09 | 1.4% | 82 | 72.7 | 1.13× |
| [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.07 | 1.1% | 79 | 72.7 | 1.09× |
| [MP5-SD \| Neon Squeezer (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-neon-squeezer-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.07 | 1.1% | 59 | 72.7 | 0.81× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.07 | 1.1% | 61 | 72.7 | 0.84× |
| [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.06 | 0.9% | 71 | 72.7 | 0.98× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.06 | 0.9% | 87 | 72.7 | 1.20× |
| [MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-snow-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.03 | 0.5% | 76 | 72.7 | 1.05× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.02 | 0.3% | 78 | 72.7 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mp5/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mp5)

[MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-minimal-wear) [Burka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Burka) $0.25 $0.13 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-snow-splash-minimal-wear) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.25 $0.03 0.12x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[MP5-SD | Focus (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-field-tested) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.25 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.25 $0.13 0.52x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.25 $0.07 0.28x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-factory-new) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.25 $0.35 1.40x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.25 $0.06 0.24x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.25 $0.37 1.48x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) [nkola6009\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nkola6009_CS2.ME) $0.25 $0.07 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-minimal-wear) [nkola6009\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nkola6009_CS2.ME) $0.25 $0.06 0.24x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.25 | 97.60% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.25 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 13.1% classified 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% industrial 0.0% Mythical 0.0% Consumer Grade 5.5% consumer 0.1% mil spec 0.2% restricted 1.3% Rare 5.4% milspec 6.1% #4b69ff 13.2% violet 4.8% blue 23.6% #5e98d9 19.0% Common 3.8% Uncommon 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.60 on average: an expected loss of $2.40 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt