---
title: "Mp 7 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mp 7 ($1.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.51% from 36 items with odds, observed 88.45% over 38 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mp 7](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mp 7

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 91.51% · EV $1.36 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.45% · 38 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 55.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 38 openings · below min

30 days · 38 openings · below min

since tracking started · 38 openings · below min

23.5% 79.8% 136.0%

**Small sample.** 38 openings and 10.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7?window=24h) | 11 | 79.87% ±55.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7?window=7d) | 38 | 88.45% ±30.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7) | 38 | 88.45% ±30.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp7?window=all) | 38 | 88.45% ±30.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $164 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $94.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $93.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 90,909 | $69.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $45.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 15,625 | $39.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-factory-new) | 1 in 8,264 | $27.76 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,915 | $17.07 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 1,030 | $13.39 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 541 | $10.47 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 1 in 237 | $7.98 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $5.58 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $4.76 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Factory New) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $3.65 | 5.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $3.39 | 5.6% | 5 | 1.6 | 3.08× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.58 | 6.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.23 | 9.2% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.24× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.84 | 6.0% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.79 | 9.5% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.66 | 10.1% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.60 | 9.6% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.37 | 3.7% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.49× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.04 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [MP7 \| Sunbaked (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.97 | 2.6% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.24× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.90 | 2.5% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.75 | 2.0% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.49× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.70 | 1.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.63 | 1.7% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.87× |
| [MP7 \| Army Recon (Factory New) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.61 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.40 | 1.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.49× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.37 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [MP7 \| Astrolabe (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-astrolabe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.36 | 1.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.35 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.34 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.23 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.18 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mp7/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mp7)

[MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.49 $1.37 0.92x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC

[MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $1.49 $0.23 0.15x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-factory-new) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $1.49 $1.79 1.20x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC

[MP7 | Sunbaked (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-factory-new) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $1.49 $0.97 0.65x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC

[MP7 | Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $1.49 $0.40 0.27x 2026-11-10 19:04 UTC

[MP7 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $1.49 $2.23 1.50x 2026-11-10 18:59 UTC

[MP7 | Sunbaked (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-factory-new) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $1.49 $0.97 0.65x 2026-11-10 18:58 UTC

[MP7 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $1.49 $2.23 1.50x 2026-11-10 18:57 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $1.49 $0.90 0.60x 2026-11-10 17:15 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $1.49 $0.63 0.42x 2026-11-10 17:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 91.51% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.9% mil spec 14.8% #4b69ff 3.7% covert 0.0% industrial 11.6% rare 0.0% SMGs 3.8% Legendary 0.1% restricted 9.0% consumer 0.4% Mythical 4.9% gray 4.5% Consumer Grade 7.3% violet 12.0% #87c7ff 7.4% Common 3.7% blue 3.7% Rare 7.4% #5e98d9 3.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.51 on average: an expected loss of $8.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt