---
title: "Mp 9 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mp 9 ($0.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.52% from 36 items with odds, observed 79.68% over 67 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Mp 9](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Mp 9

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9?window=all)

Price · $0.99

Advertised RTP · 93.52% · EV $0.93 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.68% · 67 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 67 openings · below min

30 days · 67 openings · below min

since tracking started · 67 openings · below min

-0.5% 91.8% 184.0%

**Small sample.** 67 openings and 18.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9?window=24h) | 2 | 32.32% ±151.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9?window=7d) | 67 | 79.68% ±26.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9) | 67 | 79.68% ±26.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/mp9?window=all) | 67 | 79.68% ±26.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $138 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $108 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $66.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $49.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $31.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 10,989 | $22.40 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 3,344 | $14.11 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,183 | $12.74 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 1 in 878 | $8.90 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 351 | $6.60 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 207 | $4.88 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Dry Season (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dry-season-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $3.68 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $3.25 | 5.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [MP9 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $3.20 | 4.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.64× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $2.19 | 5.8% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.64 | 7.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.62 | 6.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.26 | 7.8% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.71× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.20 | 8.9% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.07 | 9.4% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.06 | 8.0% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.46× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.88 | 3.6% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Broken Record (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-broken-record-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.70 | 2.9% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.67 | 2.8% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.66 | 2.7% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.48 | 2.0% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.44 | 1.8% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.39 | 1.6% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.35 | 1.4% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.32 | 1.3% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.25 | 1.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.25 | 1.0% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.61× |
| [MP9 \| Broken Record (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-broken-record-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 0.7% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.13 | 0.5% | 8 | 3.7 | 2.15× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/mp9/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=mp9)

[MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.99 $0.32 0.32x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $0.99 $0.32 0.32x 2026-11-10 16:57 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) [tedybear\_111](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/tedybear_111) $0.99 $0.67 0.68x 2026-11-09 19:14 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) [EbuWashRot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/EbuWashRot) $0.99 $1.07 1.08x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) [EbuWashRot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/EbuWashRot) $0.99 $0.48 0.48x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) [EbuWashRot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/EbuWashRot) $0.99 $0.67 0.68x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC

[MP9 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) [EbuWashRot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/EbuWashRot) $0.99 $0.13 0.13x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC

[MP9 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.99 $0.13 0.13x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC

[MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-broken-record-factory-new) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.99 $0.70 0.71x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC

[MP9 | Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.99 $0.66 0.67x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.99 | 93.52% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.99 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 8.6% mil spec 11.5% red 0.0% rare 0.0% Consumer Grade 3.8% classified 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% pink 0.3% consumer 0.8% Common 1.6% common 1.2% violet 2.5% #8847ff 4.5% Uncommon 13.2% Mythical 6.9% gray 7.0% #4b69ff 3.8% Rare 22.8% blue 7.6% milspec 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.52 on average: an expected loss of $6.48 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt