---
title: "Murzofixx case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Murzofixx ($2.89) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.87% from 42 items with odds, observed 94.39% over 1,610 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Murzofixx](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Murzofixx

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx?window=all)

Price · $2.89

Advertised RTP · 94.87% · EV $2.74 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.39% · 1,610 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 52.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.56% ±15.70 101 openings

7 days · 94.55% ±5.51 819 openings

30 days · 94.39% ±3.94 1,610 openings

since tracking started · 94.39% ±3.94 1,610 openings

71.0% 87.5% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx?window=24h) | 101 | 87.56% ±15.7 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx?window=7d) | 819 | 94.55% ±5.51 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx) | 1,610 | 94.39% ±3.94 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/murzofixx?window=all) | 1,610 | 94.39% ±3.94 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,610 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $165 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $101 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $89.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $65.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19,608 | $50.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 7,246 | $30.57 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 2,155 | $26.40 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 3,185 | $25.81 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 1,401 | $23.17 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-factory-new) | 1 in 382 | $16.30 | 1.6% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.66× |
| [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 171 | $11.11 | 2.4% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 219 | $10.94 | 1.8% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.50× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $8.58 | 2.4% | 12 | 12.5 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $7.57 | 3.4% | 13 | 20.0 | 0.65× |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $6.84 | 4.1% | 28 | 26.4 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $5.26 | 4.6% | 28 | 38.9 | 0.72× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.65 | 7.5% | 72 | 71.6 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.63 | 5.1% | 37 | 48.9 | 0.76× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.62 | 5.1% | 59 | 48.9 | 1.21× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Tread (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $4.29 | 4.5% | 42 | 46.3 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.77 | 8.0% | 117 | 94.2 | 1.24× |
| [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $3.40 | 8.1% | 111 | 105.5 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $3.23 | 6.4% | 79 | 87.7 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.96 | 8.9% | 137 | 133.1 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $2.71 | 2.9% | 54 | 47.3 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $2.61 | 2.8% | 41 | 47.3 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $2.27 | 2.4% | 45 | 47.3 | 0.95× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $2.02 | 2.2% | 54 | 47.3 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $1.83 | 2.0% | 48 | 47.3 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.56 | 1.7% | 40 | 47.3 | 0.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $1.48 | 1.6% | 44 | 47.3 | 0.93× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.32 | 1.4% | 45 | 47.3 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.04 | 1.1% | 54 | 47.3 | 1.14× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.98 | 1.1% | 48 | 47.3 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.94 | 1.0% | 52 | 47.3 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.90 | 1.0% | 51 | 47.3 | 1.08× |
| [Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.58 | 0.6% | 47 | 47.3 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.56 | 0.6% | 45 | 47.3 | 0.95× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.51 | 0.5% | 48 | 47.3 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.49 | 0.5% | 45 | 47.3 | 0.95× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.37 | 0.4% | 48 | 47.3 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.35 | 0.4% | 40 | 47.4 | 0.84× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/murzofixx/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=murzofixx)

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $2.89 $1.48 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-field-tested) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $2.89 $0.98 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $2.89 $0.49 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-minimal-wear) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $2.89 $0.37 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $2.89 $8.58 2.97x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $2.89 $4.62 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $2.89 $4.62 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $2.89 $1.04 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-field-tested) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $2.89 $1.32 0.46x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-minimal-wear) [giga santana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/giga%20santana) $2.89 $0.37 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.89 | 94.87% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.89 | 94.86% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% restricted 3.0% classified 0.1% Restricted 0.1% mil spec 21.4% #87c7ff 0.6% pink 6.4% #d32ee6 0.8% #8847ff 4.2% Mil Spec Grade 1.6% Legendary 2.4% Uncommon 7.4% Rare 11.3% industrial 14.1% violet 8.8% Mythical 2.9% milspec 8.8% #4b69ff 2.9% blue 2.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.87 on average: an expected loss of $5.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt