---
title: "Musickits case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Musickits ($1.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.40% from 38 items with odds, observed 101.28% over 9,841 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Musickits](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Musickits

A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 94.40% · EV $1.41 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 101.28% · 9,841 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 55.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 103.10% ±6.66 328 openings

7 days · 101.28% ±1.40 9,841 openings

30 days · 101.28% ±1.40 9,841 openings

since tracking started · 101.28% ±1.40 9,841 openings

93.5% 102.0% 110.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 94.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (99.89% – 102.68%, 9,841 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits?window=24h) | 328 | 103.10% ±6.66 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits?window=7d) | 9,841 | 101.28% ±1.40 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits) | 9,841 | 101.28% ±1.40 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/musickits?window=all) | 9,841 | 101.28% ±1.40 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,841 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, The Devil Went Clubbing in Georgia music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-austin-wintory-the-devil-went-clubbing-in-georgia) | 1 in 32,258 | $22.64 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Dren, Gunman Taco Truck music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-gunman-taco-truck) | 1 in 21,277 | $18.99 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| TWERL and Ekko & Sidetrack, Under Bright Lights music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-twerl-and-ekko-and-sidetrack-under-bright-lights) | 1 in 7,092 | $14.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, Life's Not Out To Get You music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-neck-deep-lifes-not-out-to-get-you) | 1 in 5,618 | $13.46 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.71× |
| [Music Kit \| Knock2, dashstar\* music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-knock2-dashstar) | 1 in 2,841 | $11.26 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Freaky DNA, Vici music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-freaky-dna-vici) | 1 in 1,199 | $8.74 | 0.5% | 19 | 8.2 | 2.31× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| ISOxo, inhuman music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-isoxo-inhuman) | 1 in 903 | $7.80 | 0.6% | 16 | 10.9 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| The Verkkars, EZ4ENCE music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-the-verkkars-ez4ence) | 1 in 454 | $6.00 | 0.9% | 27 | 21.7 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Perfect World, Ay Hey music kit · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-perfect-world-ay-hey) | 1 in 308 | $5.43 | 1.3% | 44 | 32.0 | 1.38× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Perfect World, 花脸 Hua Lian (Painted Face) music kit · #F2F8FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-perfect-world-hua-lian-painted-face) | 1 in 211 | $4.96 | 1.7% | 63 | 46.6 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Amon Tobin, All for Dust music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-amon-tobin-all-for-dust) | 1 in 149 | $3.94 | 1.9% | 86 | 66.1 | 1.30× |
| [Music Kit \| The Verkkars, EZ4ENCE music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-the-verkkars-ez4ence) | 1 in 103 | $3.53 | 2.4% | 119 | 95.1 | 1.25× |
| [Music Kit \| Neck Deep, The Lowlife Pack music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-neck-deep-the-lowlife-pack) | 1 in 77 | $3.27 | 3.0% | 132 | 128.0 | 1.03× |
| [Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noon music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-feed-me-high-noon) | 1 in 58 | $2.96 | 3.6% | 212 | 168.5 | 1.26× |
| [Music Kit \| Scarlxrd, CHAIN$AW.LXADXUT. music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-scarlxrd-chain-aw-lxadxut) | 1 in 44 | $2.40 | 3.9% | 282 | 222.8 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Juelz, Floorspace music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-juelz-floorspace) | 1 in 36 | $2.33 | 4.7% | 314 | 276.4 | 1.14× |
| [Music Kit \| Selective Response, No Love Only Pleasure music kit · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-selective-response-no-love-only-pleasure) | 1 in 27 | $2.07 | 5.4% | 404 | 362.7 | 1.11× |
| [Music Kit \| Ki:Theory, MOLOTOV music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-ki-theory-molotov) | 1 in 22 | $1.93 | 6.3% | 530 | 448.4 | 1.18× |
| [Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, Bachram music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-austin-wintory-bachram) | 1 in 19 | $1.83 | 6.8% | 560 | 512.6 | 1.09× |
| [Music Kit \| Proxy, Battlepack music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-proxy-battlepack) | 1 in 16 | $1.81 | 8.2% | 671 | 626.2 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Roam, Backbone music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-roam-backbone) | 1 in 15 | $1.66 | 8.0% | 689 | 665.0 | 1.04× |
| [Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, Mocha Petal music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-austin-wintory-mocha-petal) | 1 in 14 | $1.51 | 7.5% | 750 | 685.7 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Ben Bromfield, Rabbit Hole music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-ben-bromfield-rabbit-hole) | 1 in 29 | $1.38 | 3.4% | 342 | 341.0 | 1.00× |
| [Music Kit \| Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) | 1 in 29 | $1.12 | 2.8% | 323 | 341.0 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) | 1 in 29 | $1.10 | 2.7% | 351 | 341.0 | 1.03× |
| [Music Kit \| Sam Marshall, Clutch music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-sam-marshall-clutch) | 1 in 29 | $0.96 | 2.4% | 311 | 341.0 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Beartooth, Aggressive music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-beartooth-aggressive) | 1 in 29 | $0.84 | 2.1% | 317 | 341.0 | 0.93× |
| [Music Kit \| Ben Bromfield, Rabbit Hole music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-ben-bromfield-rabbit-hole) | 1 in 29 | $0.83 | 2.0% | 292 | 341.0 | 0.86× |
| [Music Kit \| Sullivan King, Lock Me Up music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-sullivan-king-lock-me-up) | 1 in 29 | $0.77 | 1.9% | 299 | 341.0 | 0.88× |
| [Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Dead Shot music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-daniel-sadowski-dead-shot) | 1 in 29 | $0.76 | 1.9% | 309 | 341.0 | 0.91× |
| [Music Kit \| James and the Cold Gun, Chewing Glass music kit · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-james-and-the-cold-gun-chewing-glass) | 1 in 29 | $0.76 | 1.9% | 302 | 341.0 | 0.89× |
| [Music Kit \| Juelz, Shooters music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-juelz-shooters) | 1 in 29 | $0.75 | 1.8% | 296 | 341.0 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Hundredth, FREE music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-hundredth-free) | 1 in 29 | $0.69 | 1.7% | 287 | 341.0 | 0.84× |
| [Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) | 1 in 29 | $0.69 | 1.7% | 289 | 341.0 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Skog, III-Arena music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-skog-iii-arena) | 1 in 29 | $0.69 | 1.7% | 279 | 341.0 | 0.82× |
| [Music Kit \| Humanity's Last Breath, Void music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-humanitys-last-breath-void) | 1 in 29 | $0.66 | 1.6% | 298 | 341.0 | 0.87× |
| [Music Kit \| Tigercub, The Perfume of Decay music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tigercub-the-perfume-of-decay) | 1 in 29 | $0.66 | 1.6% | 309 | 341.0 | 0.91× |
| [Music Kit \| Tree Adams and Ben Bromfield, M.U.D.D. FORCE music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tree-adams-and-ben-bromfield-m-u-d-d-force) | 1 in 29 | $0.63 | 1.6% | 308 | 341.1 | 0.90× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/musickits/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=musickits)

[Music Kit | Selective Response, No Love Only Pleasure music kit · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-selective-response-no-love-only-pleasure) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $1.49 $2.07 1.39x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Hundredth, FREE music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-hundredth-free) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $1.49 $0.69 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $1.49 $1.10 0.74x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $1.49 $1.10 0.74x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[Music Kit | Ki:Theory, MOLOTOV music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-ki-theory-molotov) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $1.49 $1.93 1.30x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Ben Bromfield, Rabbit Hole music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-ben-bromfield-rabbit-hole) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $1.38 0.93x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | The Verkkars, EZ4ENCE music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-the-verkkars-ez4ence) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $6.00 4.03x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Music Kit | Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $0.69 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Music Kit | Proxy, Battlepack music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-proxy-battlepack) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $1.49 $1.81 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[Music Kit | Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $1.49 $0.69 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 94.40% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 7 23.1% high 6.2% other 13.2% #4B69FF 6.9% High Grade 32.9% uncommon 0.3% #F2F8FF 0.5% blue 9.7% common 7.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.40 on average: an expected loss of $5.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt