---
title: "Nakleiki case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nakleiki ($0.98) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.11% from 45 items with odds, observed 89.35% over 97 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Nakleiki](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Nakleiki

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki?window=all)

Price · $0.98

Advertised RTP · 93.11% · EV $0.91 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.35% · 97 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 24 openings · below min

30 days · 97 openings · below min

since tracking started · 97 openings · below min

55.5% 120.8% 186.0%

**Small sample.** 97 openings and 18.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki?window=7d) | 24 | 120.82% ±64.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki) | 97 | 89.35% ±32.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nakleiki?window=all) | 97 | 89.35% ±32.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $558 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $359 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-cologne-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $294 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $255 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $238 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 500,000 | $186 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 500,000 | $165 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 333,333 | $121 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Liquid (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 250,000 | $109 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| G2 Esports (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 125,000 | $105 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Holo) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-holo-cologne-2016) | 1 in 125,000 | $63.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Astralis (Holo) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-holo-boston-2018) | 1 in 21,277 | $55.82 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Flash Gaming (Holo) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flash-gaming-holo-boston-2018) | 1 in 76,923 | $55.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Xizt (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xizt-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 43,478 | $50.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 22,727 | $27.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| s1mple \| Cologne 2016 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-cologne-2016) | 1 in 12,346 | $26.63 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 12,658 | $25.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Spirit (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 7,042 | $23.21 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| donk (Gold, Champion) \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-donk-gold-champion-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 4,000 | $16.56 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Liquid (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-foil-katowice-2019) | 1 in 2,092 | $13.42 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Twistzz (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-twistzz-foil-katowice-2019) | 1 in 1,126 | $12.86 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-holo-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 650 | $8.35 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| KOI (Holo) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-koi-holo-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 354 | $7.39 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| Entropiq (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-entropiq-holo-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 191 | $5.62 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sticker \| Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) | 1 in 121 | $3.96 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Sticker \| Movistar Riders (Foil) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · 9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-movistar-riders-foil-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 89 | $3.60 | 4.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [Sticker \| Taste Buddy (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy-holo) | 1 in 58 | $2.92 | 5.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [Sticker \| GamerLegion (Holo) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gamerlegion-holo-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 68 | $2.84 | 4.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [Sticker \| Vitality (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-holo-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 39 | $1.93 | 5.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [Sticker \| Legacy (Holo) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-legacy-holo-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 19 | $1.55 | 9.0% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× |
| [Sticker \| NAF (Holo) \| Austin 2025 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-holo-austin-2025) | 1 in 28 | $1.50 | 5.8% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× |
| [Sticker \| Team Liquid (Gold) \| Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-gold-budapest-2025) | 1 in 14 | $1.20 | 9.3% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| rain (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) | 1 in 11 | $0.93 | 9.1% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× |
| [Sticker \| Vitality (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-holo-paris-2023) | 1 in 12 | $0.78 | 6.9% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| m0NESY (Glitter) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-m0nesy-glitter-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 13 | $0.76 | 6.2% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [Sticker \| StarLadder (Foil) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-starladder-foil-berlin-2019) | 1 in 12 | $0.72 | 6.8% | 10 | 8.4 | 1.19× |
| [Sticker \| BLAST.tv (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blast-tv-gold-paris-2023) | 1 in 15 | $0.51 | 3.8% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.61× |
| [Sticker \| 00 Nation (Glitter) \| Rio 2022 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-00-nation-glitter-rio-2022) | 1 in 16 | $0.39 | 2.7% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.16× |
| [Sticker \| FlyQuest (Glitter) \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · Sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flyquest-glitter-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 18 | $0.27 | 1.7% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| [Sticker \| StarLadder (Holo) \| Budapest 2025 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-starladder-holo-budapest-2025) | 1 in 20 | $0.23 | 1.3% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.20× |
| [Sticker \| Vitality (Foil) \| 2020 RMR sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-foil-2020-rmr) | 1 in 22 | $0.20 | 1.0% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| The MongolZ (Glitter) \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-mongolz-glitter-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 27 | $0.17 | 0.7% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| [Sticker \| Eternal Fire \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eternal-fire-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 24 | $0.13 | 0.6% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.52× |
| [Sticker \| BLAST.tv (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blast-tv-holo-paris-2023) | 1 in 31 | $0.07 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| 9INE (Glitter) \| Paris 2023 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9ine-glitter-paris-2023) | 1 in 36 | $0.06 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/nakleiki/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=nakleiki)

[Sticker | Eternal Fire | Copenhagen 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eternal-fire-copenhagen-2024) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $0.98 $0.13 0.13x 2026-11-08 21:19 UTC

[Sticker | Legacy (Holo) | Copenhagen 2024 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-legacy-holo-copenhagen-2024) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $0.98 $1.55 1.58x 2026-11-08 21:19 UTC

[Sticker | m0NESY (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-m0nesy-glitter-antwerp-2022) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $0.98 $0.76 0.78x 2026-11-08 21:19 UTC

[Sticker | 00 Nation (Glitter) | Rio 2022 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-00-nation-glitter-rio-2022) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $0.98 $0.39 0.40x 2026-11-08 21:18 UTC

[Sticker | Team Liquid (Gold) | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-gold-budapest-2025) [Апельсин オレンジ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BF%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BD%20%E3%82%AA%E3%83%AC%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B8) $0.98 $1.20 1.22x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC

[Sticker | Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) [Апельсин オレンジ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BF%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BD%20%E3%82%AA%E3%83%AC%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B8) $0.98 $3.96 4.04x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC

[Sticker | Vitality (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-holo-paris-2023) [Thanatos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Thanatos) $0.98 $0.78 0.80x 2026-11-06 22:03 UTC

[Sticker | BLAST.tv (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blast-tv-gold-paris-2023) [SvyatoSlowed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SvyatoSlowed) $0.98 $0.51 0.52x 2026-11-06 16:05 UTC

[Sticker | Vitality (Foil) | 2020 RMR sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-foil-2020-rmr) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.99 $0.20 0.20x 2026-11-05 11:18 UTC

[Sticker | The MongolZ (Glitter) | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-mongolz-glitter-shanghai-2024) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.99 $0.17 0.17x 2026-11-05 11:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.98 | 93.11% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.99 | 92.17% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.99 | 93.08% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 9 1.1% remarkable 2.6% exotic 12.4% Mythical 12.9% #8847ff 2.3% violet 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Rare 4.1% Extraordinary 6.8% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 28.7% other 7.2% Exotic 8.9% restricted 7.5% Sticker 5.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.11 on average: an expected loss of $6.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt