---
title: "Naruto case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Naruto ($5.55) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.93% from 42 items with odds, observed 74.19% over 66 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Naruto](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Naruto

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto?window=all)

Price · $5.55

Advertised RTP · 93.93% · EV $5.21 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.19% · 66 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 41 openings · below min

30 days · 66 openings · below min

since tracking started · 66 openings · below min

-0.5% 89.0% 178.5%

**Small sample.** 66 openings and 15.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto?window=24h) | 5 | 42.59% ±135.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto?window=7d) | 41 | 71.93% ±45.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto) | 66 | 74.19% ±36.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/naruto?window=all) | 66 | 74.19% ±36.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,916 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,695 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,394 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,340 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $904 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $791 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $545 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $461 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52,632 | $344 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $187 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,757 | $115 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 3,610 | $88.90 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,534 | $64.60 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,304 | $55.69 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sir Bloody Loudmouth Darryl \| The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-loudmouth-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 934 | $54.37 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 889 | $52.19 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 607 | $45.83 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 228 | $32.30 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 155 | $27.40 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $22.98 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $14.67 | 4.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $13.73 | 4.9% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $12.26 | 5.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.40× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $11.59 | 5.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $10.81 | 5.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $8.69 | 5.6% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.66 | 7.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $5.51 | 8.0% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.67 | 6.3% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $4.59 | 5.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $3.91 | 4.8% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $3.58 | 4.3% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.71× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $2.77 | 3.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.55 | 2.6% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.48 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [MAC-10 \| Indigo (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $2.46 | 2.3% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.81 | 1.6% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1.62 | 1.3% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $1.15 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.12 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.95 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.38× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $0.63 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/naruto/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=naruto)

[P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) [asddasasda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asddasasda) $5.55 $2.48 0.45x 2026-11-10 14:49 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-well-worn) [asddasasda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asddasasda) $5.55 $2.77 0.50x 2026-11-10 14:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) [asddasasda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asddasasda) $5.55 $4.67 0.84x 2026-11-10 14:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) [asddasasda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asddasasda) $5.55 $0.95 0.17x 2026-11-10 14:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) [asddasasda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asddasasda) $5.55 $0.95 0.17x 2026-11-10 14:49 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) [u1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/u1) $5.55 $0.63 0.11x 2026-11-08 19:04 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) [u1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/u1) $5.55 $2.48 0.45x 2026-11-08 19:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) [u1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/u1) $5.55 $5.51 0.99x 2026-11-08 19:04 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-well-worn) [always](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/always) $5.77 $1.62 0.28x 2026-11-05 13:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Indigo (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-well-worn) [always](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/always) $5.77 $2.46 0.43x 2026-11-05 13:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.55 | 93.93% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.77 | 90.35% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.77 | 92.35% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% legendary 0.0% covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% classified 10.5% sunny 0.0% Immortal 0.0% #ffd700 0.1% pink 23.8% red 2.9% Ancient 1.2% uncommon 1.9% #8847ff 12.6% mil spec 7.0% milspec 6.2% Mythical 5.2% restricted 13.0% other 4.8% blue 4.6% #d32ce6 3.5% violet 2.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.93 on average: an expected loss of $6.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt