---
title: "Navaja case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Navaja ($57.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.86% from 29 items with odds, observed 92.22% over 29 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Navaja](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Navaja

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja?window=all)

Price · $57.99

Advertised RTP · 92.86% · EV $53.85 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.22% · 29 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 43.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 29 openings · below min

30 days · 29 openings · below min

since tracking started · 29 openings · below min

41.5% 89.0% 136.5%

**Small sample.** 29 openings and 12.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja?window=24h) | 3 | 89.04% ±46.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja?window=7d) | 29 | 92.22% ±15.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja) | 29 | 92.22% ±15.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navaja?window=all) | 29 | 92.22% ±15.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,405 | $329 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,269 | $271 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 618 | $231 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 658 | $231 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 554 | $227 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 357 | $191 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 242 | $161 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 179 | $139 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $111 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $106 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $91.13 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $86.47 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $82.12 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $81.08 | 3.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $70.96 | 4.6% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.82× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $66.36 | 4.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $59.17 | 5.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $50.95 | 6.0% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.35× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $47.27 | 5.6% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $47.12 | 5.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $45.95 | 5.4% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $45.39 | 5.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $44.52 | 5.2% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $43.67 | 5.1% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $43.10 | 5.1% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $42.54 | 5.0% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $40.85 | 4.8% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $40.57 | 4.8% | 6 | 3.0 | 2.01× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $40.28 | 4.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/navaja/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=navaja)

[★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $57.99 $43.67 0.75x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Aleg Coffee 😈](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleg%20Coffee%20%F0%9F%98%88) $57.99 $40.28 0.69x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $57.99 $70.96 1.22x 2026-11-11 05:14 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Slayer\_134](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Slayer_134) $57.99 $47.12 0.81x 2026-11-10 18:47 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) [Slayer\_134](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Slayer_134) $57.99 $50.95 0.88x 2026-11-10 18:46 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) [QuaTTro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/QuaTTro) $57.99 $45.39 0.78x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $57.99 $43.67 0.75x 2026-11-10 14:10 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $57.99 $50.95 0.88x 2026-11-10 14:10 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $57.99 $40.57 0.70x 2026-11-10 11:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $57.99 $82.12 1.42x 2026-11-09 15:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $57.99 | 92.86% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $57.99 | 94.00% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 47.0% Covert 1.0% covert knife 19.3% Immortal 7.4% gold 19.0% #ffd700 6.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.86 on average: an expected loss of $7.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt