--- title: "Navi ewc case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Navi ewc ($1.58) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.42% from 42 items with odds, observed 83.15% over 815 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Navi ewc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Navi ewc A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc?window=all) Price · $1.58 Advertised RTP · 93.42% · EV $1.48 from 42 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.15% · 815 openings, odds method Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.38% ±39.50 243 openings 7 days · 79.96% ±23.68 672 openings 30 days · 83.15% ±21.40 815 openings since tracking started · 83.15% ±21.40 815 openings 48.0% 88.3% 128.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc?window=24h) | 243 | 88.38% ±39.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc?window=7d) | 672 | 79.96% ±23.7 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc) | 815 | 83.15% ±21.4 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/navi-ewc?window=all) | 815 | 83.15% ±21.4 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 815 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,282 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,814 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,590 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,216 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $975 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $615 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $449 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $331 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $224 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $134 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 58,824 | $73.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 21,277 | $48.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 15,873 | $46.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,025 | $29.53 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 1,887 | $19.21 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 496 | $14.08 | 1.9% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 507 | $13.82 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 732 | $12.89 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 291 | $9.79 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 303 | $9.42 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $6.72 | 3.7% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $6.70 | 3.7% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 128 | $6.70 | 3.6% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.63× | | [P90 \| Deathgaze (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $5.62 | 4.5% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.14× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $5.37 | 4.2% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× | | [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $5.22 | 4.0% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $5.15 | 4.4% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.88× | | [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $5.13 | 4.0% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.74× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $4.72 | 5.5% | 12 | 14.1 | 0.85× | | [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $4.68 | 4.5% | 6 | 11.5 | 0.52× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $4.06 | 4.8% | 15 | 14.3 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $2.94 | 4.6% | 21 | 18.7 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $2.89 | 6.5% | 32 | 27.0 | 1.19× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.43 | 7.7% | 57 | 64.5 | 0.88× | | [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.99 | 5.5% | 58 | 66.3 | 0.87× | | [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.87 | 4.9% | 63 | 67.3 | 0.94× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.66 | 3.8% | 77 | 69.7 | 1.11× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.51 | 3.0% | 88 | 71.1 | 1.24× | | [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.31 | 1.9% | 72 | 74.9 | 0.96× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.30 | 1.9% | 73 | 75.6 | 0.97× | | [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.17 | 1.1% | 83 | 78.3 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-battle-scarred) | 10.3% | $0.10 | 0.7% | 91 | 83.7 | 1.09× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/navi_ewc/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=navi-ewc) [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $5.13 3.25x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $6.72 4.25x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $1.43 0.91x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $1.43 0.91x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $0.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-well-worn) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $0.17 0.11x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-well-worn) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $0.17 0.11x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $0.31 0.20x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $0.30 0.19x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.58 $0.87 0.55x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.58 | 93.42% | 42 | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.60 | 92.25% | 42 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.60 | 93.14% | 42 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Immortal 0.0% classified 6.2% #eb4b4b 0.0% #d32ce6 2.6% pink 2.6% #d32ee6 2.9% uncommon 1.3% Mythical 4.5% mil spec 7.9% violet 8.1% milspec 8.3% restricted 17.8% Restricted 8.7% #4b69ff 18.8% blueLight 10.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.42 on average: an expected loss of $6.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt