---
title: "Negev case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Negev ($0.32) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.56% from 36 items with odds, observed 94.32% over 816 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Negev](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Negev

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev?window=all)

Price · $0.32

Advertised RTP · 93.56% · EV $0.30 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.32% · 816 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 32 openings · below min

7 days · 94.32% ±6.52 816 openings

30 days · 94.32% ±6.52 816 openings

since tracking started · 94.32% ±6.52 816 openings

55.0% 88.5% 122.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev?window=24h) | 32 | 88.38% ±32.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev?window=7d) | 816 | 94.32% ±6.52 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev) | 816 | 94.32% ±6.52 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/negev?window=all) | 816 | 94.32% ±6.52 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 972 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Negev \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $63.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $18.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $17.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-field-tested) | 1 in 90,909 | $14.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 17,241 | $7.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Negev \| Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43,478 | $6.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Infrastructure (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-factory-new) | 1 in 8,929 | $5.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) | 1 in 3,546 | $4.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) | 1 in 747 | $3.71 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| [Negev \| Bratatat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,182 | $3.05 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 216 | $1.56 | 2.4% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [Negev \| Dazzle (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dazzle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $1.44 | 2.8% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06× |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $1.24 | 2.9% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $0.82 | 3.9% | 14 | 13.7 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $0.60 | 4.7% | 25 | 22.8 | 1.09× |
| [Negev \| Wall Bang (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.53 | 5.3% | 31 | 29.0 | 1.07× |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.48 | 6.1% | 43 | 36.9 | 1.16× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.45 | 6.9% | 40 | 44.8 | 0.89× |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.39 | 7.8% | 56 | 58.4 | 0.96× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.38 | 6.9% | 57 | 53.2 | 1.07× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.31 | 8.5% | 81 | 79.5 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.31 | 8.5% | 78 | 79.5 | 0.98× |
| [Negev \| Prototype (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.30 | 3.9% | 41 | 38.2 | 1.07× |
| [Negev \| Prototype (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.28 | 3.7% | 40 | 38.2 | 1.05× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.28 | 3.7% | 39 | 38.2 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.28 | 3.7% | 48 | 38.2 | 1.26× |
| [Negev \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.24 | 3.1% | 29 | 38.2 | 0.76× |
| [Negev \| Bulkhead (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bulkhead-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.23 | 3.0% | 29 | 38.2 | 0.76× |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.16 | 2.1% | 43 | 38.2 | 1.13× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.11 | 1.4% | 43 | 38.2 | 1.13× |
| [Negev \| Wall Bang (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.08 | 1.0% | 40 | 38.2 | 1.05× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.08 | 1.0% | 30 | 38.2 | 0.79× |
| [Negev \| Bulkhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bulkhead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 0.9% | 38 | 38.2 | 1.00× |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 0.9% | 43 | 38.2 | 1.13× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.05 | 0.7% | 27 | 38.2 | 0.71× |
| [Negev \| Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-army-sheen-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.04 | 0.5% | 37 | 38.2 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/negev/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=negev)

[Negev | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.32 $0.28 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Negev | Wall Bang (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.32 $0.53 1.66x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Negev | Drop Me (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.32 $0.48 1.50x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-minimal-wear) [ПедикПоМатеше](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%B5) $0.32 $0.11 0.34x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-field-tested) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.32 $0.39 1.22x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-field-tested) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.32 $0.08 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.32 $0.16 0.50x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Negev | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-field-tested) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.32 $0.28 0.88x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-minimal-wear) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.32 $0.11 0.34x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.32 $0.24 0.75x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.32 | 93.56% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.32 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 11.8% industrial 11.8% #4b69ff 13.2% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% #8847ff 2.4% Uncommon 8.2% violet 0.6% mil spec 9.1% restricted 2.1% #5e98d9 3.0% Mythical 6.0% Rare 12.1% blue 7.9% Industrial Grade 3.9% Common 3.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.56 on average: an expected loss of $6.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt