---
title: "Nomad case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nomad ($139.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.37% from 30 items with odds, observed 90.27% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Nomad](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Nomad

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad?window=all)

Price · $139.99

Advertised RTP · 93.37% · EV $130.71 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.27% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

40.5% 135.0% 229.5%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad?window=24h) | 1 | 135.07% ±93.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad?window=7d) | 4 | 90.27% ±46.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad) | 4 | 90.27% ±46.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nomad?window=all) | 4 | 90.27% ±46.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 822 | $680 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 311 | $503 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 168 | $390 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 169 | $359 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $345 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $332 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 107 | $306 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $268 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $248 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $218 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $189 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $185 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $169 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $165 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $158 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $155 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $144 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $119 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $115 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $107 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $99.77 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $96.30 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $93.09 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $90.94 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $90.57 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $81.91 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $77.22 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $75.72 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $71.48 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $71.09 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/nomad/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=nomad)

[★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $140 $189 1.35x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Slayer\_134](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Slayer_134) $140 $90.57 0.65x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $140 $107 0.76x 2026-11-08 13:21 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $140 $119 0.85x 2026-11-07 20:43 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) [♥野生のクマ♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%99%A5%E9%87%8E%E7%94%9F%E3%81%AE%E3%82%AF%E3%83%9E%E2%99%A5) $140 $97.85 0.70x 2026-11-05 19:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $140 | 93.37% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $140 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.9% covert knife 47.4% Immortal 5.3% rare 11.0% epic 10.4% covert 18.1% gold 2.1% Covert 4.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.37 on average: an expected loss of $6.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt