---
title: "Nova case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nova ($0.43) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.01% from 36 items with odds, observed 79.14% over 96 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Nova](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Nova

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova?window=all)

Price · $0.43

Advertised RTP · 91.01% · EV $0.39 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.14% · 96 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 96 openings · below min

30 days · 96 openings · below min

since tracking started · 96 openings · below min

-0.5% 68.5% 137.5%

**Small sample.** 96 openings and 26.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova?window=24h) | 5 | 46.05% ±90.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova?window=7d) | 96 | 79.14% ±20.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova) | 96 | 79.14% ±20.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nova?window=all) | 96 | 79.14% ±20.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 173 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $82.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $50.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $30.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $25.78 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 38,462 | $16.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,364 | $10.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 4,525 | $6.76 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 2,075 | $5.22 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 891 | $3.61 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 466 | $2.97 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) | 1 in 210 | $2.29 | 2.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Nova \| Plume (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-plume-minimal-wear) | 1 in 128 | $1.73 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $1.53 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.97 | 4.6% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.87 | 6.3% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.81 | 6.4% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.60 | 7.6% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.59 | 7.9% | 12 | 9.0 | 1.33× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.51 | 8.9% | 10 | 11.8 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.48 | 9.0% | 14 | 12.6 | 1.11× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.47 | 9.7% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.35 | 3.4% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.35 | 3.4% | 11 | 6.6 | 1.67× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.28 | 2.7% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [Nova \| Yorkshire (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-yorkshire-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.25 | 2.4% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.23 | 2.2% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.52× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.18 | 1.7% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.61× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 1.4% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 1.4% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 1.4% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.22× |
| [Nova \| Rain Station (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 1.4% | 11 | 6.6 | 1.67× |
| [Nova \| Caged Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.11 | 1.1% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.09 | 0.9% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.22× |
| [Nova \| Caged Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.07 | 0.7% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.37× |
| [Nova \| Mandrel (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.06 | 0.6% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [Nova \| Rain Station (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.61× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/nova/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=nova)

[Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [Burka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Burka) $0.43 $0.18 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-factory-new) [Burka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Burka) $0.43 $0.14 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [muō](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/mu%C5%8D) $0.43 $0.18 0.42x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC

[Nova | Rain Station (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-factory-new) [Илья Островский](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%9E%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9) $0.43 $0.14 0.33x 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC

[Nova | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-factory-new) [diinna99](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/diinna99) $0.43 $0.35 0.81x 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC

[Nova | Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) [МАМУРА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%90) $0.43 $0.51 1.19x 2026-11-10 13:45 UTC

[Nova | Mandrel (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-factory-new) [МАМУРА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%90) $0.43 $0.06 0.14x 2026-11-10 13:45 UTC

[Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-minimal-wear) [МАМУРА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%90) $0.43 $0.47 1.09x 2026-11-10 13:45 UTC

[Nova | Mandrel (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-factory-new) [МАМУРА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%90) $0.43 $0.06 0.14x 2026-11-10 13:44 UTC

[Nova | Rain Station (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-factory-new) [МАМУРА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%90) $0.43 $0.14 0.33x 2026-11-10 13:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.43 | 91.01% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.43 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.0% Mythical 10.4% violet 0.0% Industrial Grade 0.1% consumer 5.0% restricted 0.5% mil spec 7.8% milspec 9.2% Consumer Grade 3.1% blue 14.4% Common 7.6% Rare 3.8% Mil Spec 3.8% #4b69ff 3.8% industrial 19.0% Uncommon 7.6% #5e98d9 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.01 on average: an expected loss of $8.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt