---
title: "Nozhcase case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nozhcase ($196.44) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 60 items with odds, observed 65.69% over 3 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Nozhcase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Nozhcase

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase?window=all)

Price · $196.44

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $184.65 from 60 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 65.69% · 3 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 3 openings · below min

30 days · 3 openings · below min

since tracking started · 3 openings · below min

-0.5% 92.8% 186.0%

**Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase?window=7d) | 3 | 65.69% ±119.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase) | 3 | 65.69% ±119.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nozhcase?window=all) | 3 | 65.69% ±119.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 30,303 | $4,890 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,082 | $2,208 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $2,122 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $2,122 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,288 | $1,814 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,132 | $1,637 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $1,631 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,357 | $1,452 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $1,394 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 783 | $1,175 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 852 | $1,163 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 484 | $911 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 415 | $900 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 458 | $894 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 394 | $848 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 390 | $826 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 367 | $816 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 390 | $801 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 339 | $782 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 343 | $776 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) | 1 in 309 | $737 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 310 | $722 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 303 | $668 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $666 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 301 | $662 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 257 | $639 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $614 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 221 | $591 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $549 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 188 | $543 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 196 | $532 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $532 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 174 | $528 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 170 | $511 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 165 | $488 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 150 | $467 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 155 | $461 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $459 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $455 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $393 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $375 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107 | $372 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $363 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $331 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $316 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $301 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $289 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $268 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $248 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $248 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $162 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $137 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $136 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $118 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $116 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $96.46 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $86.32 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $78.48 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 12.1% | $55.44 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 19.0% | $40.72 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/nozhcase/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=nozhcase)

[★ Ursus Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $203 $55.44 0.27x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $203 $248 1.22x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $203 $96.46 0.48x 2026-11-04 17:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $196 | 94.00% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $203 | 90.97% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $203 | 91.46% | 60 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed knifes 0.0% covert 57.0% sunny 3.8% #ffd700 0.2% gold 2.7% epic 3.0% rare 3.9% covert knife 28.9% legendary 0.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt