---
title: "Nuke case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nuke ($30.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.25% from 22 items with odds, observed 68.25% over 34 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Nuke](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Nuke

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke?window=all)

Price · $30.99

Advertised RTP · 91.25% · EV $28.28 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 68.25% · 34 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 34 openings · below min

30 days · 34 openings · below min

since tracking started · 34 openings · below min

48.0% 70.0% 92.0%

**Small sample.** 34 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke?window=7d) | 34 | 68.25% ±19.6 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke) | 34 | 68.25% ±19.6 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke?window=all) | 34 | 68.25% ±19.6 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 824 | $296 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-irradiated-alert-factory-new) | 1 in 916 | $268 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 153 | $151 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $146 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $110 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $93.94 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $85.39 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $72.27 | 5.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $66.36 | 7.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $54.17 | 7.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $44.52 | 8.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $43.01 | 8.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $34.06 | 9.9% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $27.15 | 7.1% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $26.88 | 7.0% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.99× |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $24.00 | 6.3% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.59× |
| [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $10.13 | 2.6% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $9.81 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $9.40 | 2.5% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.95 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $4.70 | 1.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-irradiated-alert-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.37 | 0.6% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.99× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/nuke/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=nuke)

[UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $30.99 $26.88 0.87x 2026-11-06 15:44 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $9.95 0.32x 2026-11-05 20:21 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $4.86 0.16x 2026-11-05 20:21 UTC

[P90 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $9.66 0.31x 2026-11-05 20:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $35.19 1.14x 2026-11-05 20:21 UTC

[P90 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $9.66 0.31x 2026-11-05 20:21 UTC

[P90 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $30.53 0.99x 2026-11-05 20:21 UTC

[P90 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $9.66 0.31x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-irradiated-alert-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $2.43 0.08x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-irradiated-alert-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $30.99 $2.43 0.08x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $30.99 | 91.25% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $30.99 | 94.00% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 10.0% consumer 8.9% restricted 1.3% industrial 40.8% other 2.1% #8847ff 3.7% Consumer Grade 12.8% Mythical 5.6% Uncommon 7.4% Common 7.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.25 on average: an expected loss of $8.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt