--- title: "Nuke 2018 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nuke 2018 ($0.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.87% from 31 items with odds, observed 97.45% over 198 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Nuke 2018](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Nuke 2018 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018?window=all) Price · $0.99 Advertised RTP · 91.87% · EV $0.91 from 31 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.45% · 198 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 25 openings · below min 7 days · 97.45% ±13.16 198 openings 30 days · 97.45% ±13.16 198 openings since tracking started · 97.45% ±13.16 198 openings 56.0% 93.8% 131.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018?window=24h) | 25 | 93.66% ±37.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018?window=7d) | 198 | 97.45% ±13.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018) | 198 | 97.45% ±13.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/nuke2018?window=all) | 198 | 97.45% ±13.2 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 324 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $118 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $40.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62,500 | $31.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 17,544 | $20.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 13,699 | $18.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 2,793 | $10.74 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) | 1 in 2,151 | $10.71 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) | 1 in 960 | $7.53 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 224 | $4.99 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 197 | $4.49 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 165 | $4.24 | 2.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $2.53 | 4.9% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.52× | | [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $1.94 | 6.3% | 15 | 9.6 | 1.56× | | [P250 \| Exchanger (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.93 | 6.8% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× | | [P90 \| Facility Negative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1.93 | 6.6% | 13 | 10.0 | 1.30× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.90 | 6.9% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.83 | 7.1% | 19 | 11.4 | 1.67× | | [AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1.77 | 7.1% | 6 | 11.9 | 0.51× | | [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.25 | 9.5% | 18 | 22.4 | 0.80× | | [AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.18 | 10.5% | 24 | 26.3 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.82 | 5.1% | 21 | 18.2 | 1.15× | | [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.54 | 3.3% | 25 | 18.2 | 1.37× | | [P90 \| Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.53 | 3.3% | 19 | 18.2 | 1.04× | | [P250 \| Exchanger (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.52 | 3.2% | 19 | 18.2 | 1.04× | | [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.41 | 2.5% | 21 | 18.2 | 1.15× | | [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.24 | 1.5% | 16 | 18.2 | 0.88× | | [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.23 | 1.4% | 20 | 18.2 | 1.10× | | [Negev \| Bulkhead (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bulkhead-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.23 | 1.4% | 12 | 18.2 | 0.66× | | [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.17 | 1.0% | 12 | 18.2 | 0.66× | | [P90 \| Facility Negative (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.14 | 0.9% | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.12 | 0.7% | 14 | 18.2 | 0.77× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/nuke2018/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=nuke2018) [AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.99 $1.83 1.85x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.99 $1.18 1.19x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.99 $0.23 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-minimal-wear) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.99 $0.53 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.99 $0.23 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.99 $1.90 1.92x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [P250 | Exchanger (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.99 $1.93 1.95x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.99 $1.90 1.92x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.99 $0.24 0.24x 2026-11-11 09:14 UTC [P90 | Facility Negative (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-field-tested) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.99 $0.14 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.99 | 91.87% | 31 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.99 | 94.00% | 31 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Legendary 0.0% restricted 4.3% classified 2.4% pink 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% Rare 3.6% mil spec 3.0% blue 11.9% Mythical 11.8% violet 6.9% #4b69ff 22.5% industrial 11.2% light blue 5.6% #87c7ff 11.2% milspec 5.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.87 on average: an expected loss of $8.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt