---
title: "Oktoberfest case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Oktoberfest ($20.51) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.96% from 49 items with odds, observed 81.62% over 31 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Oktoberfest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Oktoberfest

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest?window=all)

Price · $20.51

Advertised RTP · 93.96% · EV $19.27 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.62% · 31 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 18 openings · below min

30 days · 31 openings · below min

since tracking started · 31 openings · below min

43.5% 94.5% 145.5%

**Small sample.** 31 openings and 6.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest?window=7d) | 18 | 95.29% ±49.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest) | 31 | 81.62% ±37.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/oktoberfest?window=all) | 31 | 81.62% ±37.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $4,251 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $3,399 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,888 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $1,331 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 76,923 | $1,067 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 35,714 | $642 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| niko (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 25,641 | $536 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 13,514 | $383 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Cloud9 G2A (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-g2a-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 7,143 | $290 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [DreamHack 2014 Legends (Holo-Foil) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dreamhack-2014-legends-holo-foil-2) | 1 in 2,994 | $286 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 1,374 | $190 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 1,445 | $171 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 889 | $163 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,488 | $159 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 396 | $124 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 260 | $109 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 326 | $85.10 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $67.02 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 138 | $66.36 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $63.25 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $47.92 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $46.35 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $43.16 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $41.66 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $36.87 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $32.41 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $31.83 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $27.20 | 5.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $26.20 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $26.09 | 6.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [Tec-9 \| Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.83 | 4.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $23.37 | 5.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $22.41 | 4.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $21.37 | 4.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $19.21 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $18.79 | 4.6% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.38× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $15.73 | 3.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $14.33 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $13.33 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $8.15 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $6.29 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $5.92 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Scale (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-scale-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.65 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.76 | 1.0% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.43× |
| [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $4.20 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.91 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $1.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.45 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $0.13 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/oktoberfest/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=oktoberfest)

[SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-well-worn) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $26.09 1.25x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $23.37 1.12x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $41.66 2.00x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-battle-scarred) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $5.92 0.28x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $25.83 1.24x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-battle-scarred) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $4.20 0.20x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $41.66 2.00x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $26.20 1.26x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[AUG | Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $18.79 0.90x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $20.86 $0.13 0.01x 2026-11-05 15:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $20.51 | 93.96% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $20.86 | 92.38% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.86 | 90.77% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.3% covert 1.2% legendary 0.0% Covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% Remarkable 0.0% #B0C3D9 4.0% remarkable 0.1% Ancient 2.2% restricted 2.8% classified 11.6% industrial 10.3% violet 5.0% Rare 1.2% Mythical 3.1% Industrial Grade 7.5% mil spec 19.5% Mil Spec Grade 7.6% consumer 6.4% Restricted 4.5% #4b69ff 4.2% Uncommon 4.0% Mil Spec 2.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.96 on average: an expected loss of $6.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt