--- title: "Orange case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Orange ($2.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 97.79% over 2,953 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Orange](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Orange A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange?window=all) Price · $2.49 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $2.34 from 40 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.79% · 2,953 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 102.46% ±5.66 847 openings 7 days · 97.79% ±3.03 2,953 openings 30 days · 97.79% ±3.03 2,953 openings since tracking started · 97.79% ±3.03 2,953 openings 93.5% 101.3% 109.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 94.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.77% – 100.82%, 2,953 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange?window=24h) | 847 | 102.46% ±5.66 | +2.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange?window=7d) | 2,953 | 97.79% ±3.03 | +2.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange) | 2,953 | 97.79% ±3.03 | +2.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orange?window=all) | 2,953 | 97.79% ±3.03 | +2.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,333 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $141 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $109 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $81.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47,619 | $62.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $45.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,101 | $37.97 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 4,464 | $29.64 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,132 | $23.68 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 1,042 | $17.64 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 529 | $15.77 | 1.3% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.59× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 298 | $12.58 | 1.8% | 10 | 11.2 | 0.89× | | [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 191 | $9.19 | 2.1% | 20 | 17.4 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $8.28 | 2.9% | 33 | 27.4 | 1.20× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $6.89 | 3.3% | 36 | 37.4 | 0.96× | | [Negev \| Infrastructure (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $5.98 | 4.0% | 55 | 52.1 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $5.22 | 8.2% | 134 | 121.8 | 1.10× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $4.24 | 5.4% | 106 | 98.6 | 1.08× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $3.80 | 6.0% | 116 | 122.8 | 0.94× | | [SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.31 | 6.9% | 166 | 163.7 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.13 | 8.1% | 216 | 201.8 | 1.07× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.79 | 8.5% | 244 | 236.6 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.70 | 9.2% | 273 | 266.3 | 1.03× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.59 | 9.2% | 279 | 276.6 | 1.01× | | [XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.19 | 2.9% | 105 | 101.9 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.78 | 2.3% | 104 | 101.9 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.53 | 2.0% | 96 | 101.9 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.43 | 1.9% | 89 | 101.9 | 0.87× | | [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.30 | 1.7% | 99 | 101.9 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.30 | 1.7% | 111 | 101.9 | 1.09× | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.99 | 1.3% | 97 | 101.9 | 0.95× | | [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.90 | 1.2% | 96 | 101.9 | 0.94× | | [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.86 | 1.1% | 92 | 101.9 | 0.90× | | [Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.81 | 1.1% | 94 | 101.9 | 0.92× | | [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.71 | 0.9% | 107 | 101.9 | 1.05× | | [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.60 | 0.8% | 93 | 101.9 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.57 | 0.7% | 91 | 101.9 | 0.89× | | [MAC-10 \| Echoing Sands (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-echoing-sands-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.49 | 0.6% | 96 | 101.9 | 0.94× | | [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.40 | 0.5% | 101 | 101.9 | 0.99× | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.37 | 0.5% | 90 | 101.9 | 0.88× | | [P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $0.29 | 0.2% | 63 | 56.7 | 1.11× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/orange/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=orange) [G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $0.86 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $0.37 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $5.22 2.10x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $0.57 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $3.80 1.53x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $3.80 1.53x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $0.90 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $2.59 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $3.80 1.53x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.49 $2.59 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 40 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 1.6% 2 3.1% rare 0.0% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Ancient 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 9.2% classified 14.2% blue 22.9% Legendary 4.5% Mythical 18.3% #8847ff 6.1% Rare 9.2% mil spec 6.1% violet 3.1% Consumer Grade 1.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt