---
title: "Orochi case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Orochi ($31.43) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 49 items with odds, observed 65.56% over 16 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Orochi](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Orochi

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi?window=all)

Price · $31.43

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $29.54 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 65.56% · 16 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 16 openings · below min

since tracking started · 16 openings · below min

-0.5% 77.0% 154.5%

**Small sample.** 16 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi?window=7d) | 12 | 69.12% ±84.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi) | 16 | 65.56% ±73.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/orochi?window=all) | 16 | 65.56% ±73.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $15.6K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $13.2K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $13.1K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $11.3K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,857 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,043 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333,333 | $3,126 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $2,769 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $2,570 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $1,695 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $1,513 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $1,284 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 41,667 | $1,232 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,641 | $1,054 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 15,625 | $799 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 13,889 | $767 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 8,850 | $639 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 6,494 | $600 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 6,897 | $586 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 397 | $193 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 499 | $178 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 305 | $172 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 241 | $156 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $131 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $131 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 184 | $128 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $123 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $103 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $83.77 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $81.42 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $79.44 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $76.26 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $62.56 | 4.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $57.80 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $54.97 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $36.03 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $35.14 | 5.1% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $34.51 | 7.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $30.61 | 6.3% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $26.06 | 5.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $15.85 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $14.90 | 3.1% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $13.17 | 2.7% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $12.39 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $11.19 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $8.81 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $5.13 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $5.00 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $3.37 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/orochi/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=orochi)

[USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $31.43 $3.37 0.11x 2026-11-08 18:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $31.43 $14.90 0.47x 2026-11-08 18:07 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $31.43 $35.14 1.12x 2026-11-08 18:07 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $31.43 $30.61 0.97x 2026-11-08 18:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $31.43 $26.06 0.83x 2026-11-08 18:06 UTC

[USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $31.43 $3.37 0.11x 2026-11-08 18:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $31.43 $14.90 0.47x 2026-11-06 07:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $31.43 $8.81 0.28x 2026-11-06 07:37 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-well-worn) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $31.43 $30.61 0.97x 2026-11-06 07:37 UTC

[P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-factory-new) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $31.43 $15.85 0.50x 2026-11-06 07:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $31.43 | 93.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $32.00 | 92.31% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $32.00 | 92.27% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 2.7% covert 14.2% classified 32.7% mil spec 5.5% epic 0.3% #ffd700 1.5% #eb4b4b 6.1% #d32ce6 6.1% restricted 12.3% Mythical 6.2% industrial 6.2% #8847ff 6.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt