--- title: "Overfit case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Overfit ($2.62) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 21 items with odds, observed 95.64% over 654 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit rendered: 2026-11-11T15:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Overfit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Overfit A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit?window=all) Price · $2.62 Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $2.46 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.64% · 654 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 97.40% ±16.62 362 openings 30 days · 95.64% ±12.45 654 openings since tracking started · 95.64% ±12.45 654 openings 80.0% 97.3% 114.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit?window=7d) | 362 | 97.40% ±16.6 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit) | 654 | 95.64% ±12.5 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overfit?window=all) | 654 | 95.64% ±12.5 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 654 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,260 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,621 | $166 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,579 | $135 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 753 | $35.20 | 1.9% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 563 | $30.46 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.72× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $10.28 | 7.9% | 13 | 12.3 | 1.06× | | [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $9.19 | 6.2% | 16 | 10.9 | 1.46× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $4.16 | 11.9% | 46 | 46.2 | 1.00× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $3.42 | 10.7% | 54 | 50.4 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) | 11.2% | $2.63 | 11.9% | 79 | 73.1 | 1.08× | | [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) | 11.2% | $2.53 | 11.5% | 68 | 73.2 | 0.93× | | [SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 11.3% | $2.45 | 11.3% | 62 | 74.0 | 0.84× | | [MAG-7 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 10.1% | $2.13 | 8.7% | 58 | 66.2 | 0.88× | | [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.96 | 7.4% | 68 | 60.8 | 1.12× | | [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.84 | 1.8% | 32 | 34.8 | 0.92× | | [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.77 | 1.6% | 34 | 33.9 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.56 | 1.0% | 30 | 29.1 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.47 | 0.8% | 33 | 26.3 | 1.25× | | [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 0.7% | 27 | 26.0 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 13 | 15.8 | 0.82× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/overfit/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=overfit) [Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) [KFS1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KFS1mple) $2.62 $2.53 0.97x 2026-11-10 15:57 UTC [P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) [KFS1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KFS1mple) $2.62 $2.63 1.00x 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC [SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $2.62 $2.45 0.94x 2026-11-10 12:20 UTC [P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $2.62 $2.63 1.00x 2026-11-10 12:19 UTC [MAG-7 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-carbon-fiber-factory-new) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $2.62 $2.13 0.81x 2026-11-10 12:19 UTC [Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $2.62 $2.53 0.97x 2026-11-10 12:19 UTC [MAG-7 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-carbon-fiber-factory-new) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $2.62 $2.13 0.81x 2026-11-10 12:19 UTC [USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $2.62 $0.46 0.18x 2026-11-10 12:18 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $2.62 $4.16 1.59x 2026-11-10 12:18 UTC [Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $2.62 $2.53 0.97x 2026-11-10 12:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.62 | 93.99% | 21 | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.76 | 89.22% | 21 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.76 | 90.87% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.1% classified 0.2% restricted 14.1% blue 5.6% #4b69ff 7.7% mil spec 26.4% industrial 16.6% Uncommon 10.1% Industrial Grade 9.3% consumer 5.3% Rare 4.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt