---
title: "Overpass case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Overpass ($2.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.53% from 36 items with odds, observed 92.59% over 509 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Overpass](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Overpass

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass?window=all)

Price · $2.49

Advertised RTP · 92.53% · EV $2.30 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.59% · 509 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 32 openings · below min

7 days · 509 openings · below min

30 days · 509 openings · below min

since tracking started · 509 openings · below min

37.0% 79.0% 121.0%

**Small sample.** 509 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass?window=24h) | 32 | 79.10% ±41.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass?window=7d) | 509 | 92.59% ±9.52 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass) | 509 | 92.59% ±9.52 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/overpass?window=all) | 509 | 92.59% ±9.52 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 509 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $314 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $161 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $123 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 83,333 | $120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 15,625 | $60.95 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,009 | $51.26 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 3,968 | $37.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $33.43 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,001 | $21.37 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 737 | $20.50 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 302 | $14.32 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 221 | $13.51 | 2.6% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.17× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 252 | $13.12 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $12.63 | 2.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 214 | $12.37 | 2.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $10.22 | 4.4% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $9.68 | 3.0% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.65× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $8.92 | 3.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $7.82 | 4.2% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $6.66 | 2.5% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $5.26 | 5.4% | 14 | 12.0 | 1.17× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $4.83 | 6.0% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.09× |
| [MP9 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $3.20 | 8.6% | 34 | 31.6 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.09 | 10.6% | 31 | 40.4 | 0.77× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $2.28 | 6.1% | 30 | 31.1 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $2.23 | 5.9% | 22 | 31.1 | 0.71× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.48 | 3.9% | 32 | 31.1 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.37 | 3.6% | 40 | 31.1 | 1.28× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.33 | 3.5% | 37 | 31.1 | 1.19× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.32 | 3.5% | 31 | 31.1 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.00 | 2.7% | 36 | 31.1 | 1.16× |
| [MP9 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.60 | 1.6% | 30 | 31.1 | 0.96× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.56 | 1.5% | 36 | 31.1 | 1.16× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.53 | 1.4% | 29 | 31.1 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.45 | 1.2% | 27 | 31.1 | 0.87× |
| [MAG-7 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.29 | 0.8% | 28 | 31.1 | 0.90× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/overpass/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=overpass)

[Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $1.32 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC

[MP7 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $2.23 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-minimal-wear) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $0.56 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $5.26 2.11x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $1.32 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $1.37 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $1.32 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $1.33 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[MP9 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-field-tested) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $0.60 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-minimal-wear) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.49 $0.56 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 92.53% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% restricted 0.0% mil spec 2.8% industrial 10.1% Consumer Grade 12.4% #87c7ff 6.6% gray 0.5% blue 1.2% consumer 13.1% #4b69ff 2.4% common 6.2% Uncommon 7.9% Industrial Grade 18.4% blueLight 6.1% Common 6.1% other 6.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.53 on average: an expected loss of $7.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt