---
title: "P 250 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "P 250 ($0.78) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.87% from 36 items with odds, observed 95.53% over 225 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [P 250](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · P 250

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250?window=all)

Price · $0.78

Advertised RTP · 91.87% · EV $0.72 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.53% · 225 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 95.53% ±15.09 225 openings

30 days · 95.53% ±15.09 225 openings

since tracking started · 95.53% ±15.09 225 openings

56.5% 128.5% 200.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250?window=24h) | 10 | 128.46% ±71.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250?window=7d) | 225 | 95.53% ±15.1 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250) | 225 | 95.53% ±15.1 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p250?window=all) | 225 | 95.53% ±15.1 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 265 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $119 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $67.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66,667 | $61.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41,667 | $40.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 20,833 | $28.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 9,346 | $19.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,525 | $14.34 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-factory-new) | 1 in 1,942 | $8.99 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 726 | $7.50 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 381 | $4.70 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $3.77 | 2.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $3.47 | 4.0% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $2.48 | 4.5% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.46× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $2.02 | 4.7% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.58× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $1.70 | 5.6% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.37 | 6.5% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.24 | 6.7% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.77× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.06 | 7.5% | 9 | 13.5 | 0.67× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.92 | 8.6% | 17 | 17.7 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.92 | 8.3% | 18 | 17.1 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.82 | 9.2% | 20 | 21.3 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Ripple (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.61 | 3.4% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.60 | 3.3% | 17 | 10.5 | 1.62× |
| [P250 \| Exchanger (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.52 | 2.9% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Re.built (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.48 | 2.6% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.40 | 2.2% | 13 | 10.5 | 1.24× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.38 | 2.1% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.15× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.32 | 1.8% | 7 | 10.5 | 0.67× |
| [P250 \| Small Game (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-small-game-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 1.7% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.25 | 1.4% | 6 | 10.5 | 0.57× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 1.1% | 19 | 10.5 | 1.82× |
| [P250 \| Drought (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-drought-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 | 1.0% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.15 | 0.8% | 7 | 10.5 | 0.67× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.14 | 0.8% | 15 | 10.5 | 1.43× |
| [P250 \| Constructivist (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-constructivist-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.14 | 0.8% | 6 | 10.5 | 0.57× |
| [P250 \| Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.11 | 0.6% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/p250/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=p250)

[P250 | Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.78 $0.25 0.32x 2026-11-11 09:01 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.78 $1.37 1.76x 2026-11-11 09:01 UTC

[P250 | Small Game (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-small-game-minimal-wear) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.78 $0.31 0.40x 2026-11-11 09:01 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.78 $2.48 3.18x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC

[P250 | Re.built (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-factory-new) [ambelymba](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ambelymba) $0.78 $0.48 0.62x 2026-11-10 17:04 UTC

[P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.78 $0.11 0.14x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-minimal-wear) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.78 $0.20 0.26x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.78 $2.48 3.18x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.78 $2.02 2.59x 2026-11-10 16:55 UTC

[P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-minimal-wear) [.....](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.....) $0.78 $0.32 0.41x 2026-11-10 16:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.78 | 91.87% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.78 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% pink 0.0% mil spec 9.3% #8847ff 0.8% classified 1.7% industrial 0.5% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% #d32ee6 0.1% restricted 7.6% Legendary 3.4% Rare 11.9% Mythical 6.7% consumer 6.5% milspec 15.8% blue 15.8% #4b69ff 3.9% Restricted 3.9% Consumer Grade 3.9% #5e98d9 7.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.87 on average: an expected loss of $8.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt