---
title: "P 90 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "P 90 ($0.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.09% from 36 items with odds, observed 105.85% over 498 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [P 90](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · P 90

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90?window=all)

Price · $0.99

Advertised RTP · 93.09% · EV $0.92 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 105.85% · 498 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 105.85% ±9.56 498 openings

30 days · 105.85% ±9.56 498 openings

since tracking started · 105.85% ±9.56 498 openings

-0.5% 115.5% 231.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 93.09% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.29% – 115.40%, 498 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90?window=24h) | 3 | 107.74% ±123.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90?window=7d) | 498 | 105.85% ±9.56 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90) | 498 | 105.85% ±9.56 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/p90?window=all) | 498 | 105.85% ±9.56 | +2.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 524 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $110 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $89.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $57.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $50.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28,571 | $32.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 11,905 | $24.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 5,128 | $20.42 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-factory-new) | 1 in 2,049 | $13.10 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 1,010 | $9.20 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 428 | $7.25 | 1.8% | 5 | 1.2 | 4.09× |
| [P90 \| Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 212 | $5.01 | 2.6% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $4.49 | 4.0% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [P90 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $3.28 | 4.0% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.54× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $2.45 | 4.7% | 13 | 9.2 | 1.41× |
| [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $2.37 | 7.2% | 20 | 14.8 | 1.36× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.85 | 6.1% | 16 | 15.9 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.54 | 7.1% | 13 | 22.4 | 0.58× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.30 | 7.8% | 37 | 28.9 | 1.28× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.18 | 8.7% | 33 | 35.8 | 0.92× |
| [P90 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.15 | 9.9% | 49 | 41.5 | 1.18× |
| [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.06 | 9.2% | 37 | 42.1 | 0.88× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.77 | 3.2% | 21 | 19.9 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.69 | 2.8% | 25 | 19.9 | 1.26× |
| [P90 \| Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.66 | 2.7% | 25 | 19.9 | 1.26× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.58 | 2.4% | 22 | 19.9 | 1.11× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.52 | 2.1% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Freight (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.49 | 2.0% | 18 | 19.9 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.40 | 1.6% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.29 | 1.2% | 12 | 19.9 | 0.60× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.29 | 1.2% | 18 | 19.9 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.29 | 1.2% | 24 | 19.9 | 1.21× |
| [P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.22 | 0.9% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 16 | 19.9 | 0.80× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.16 | 0.7% | 11 | 19.9 | 0.55× |
| [P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 0.6% | 18 | 19.9 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Ash Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 0.6% | 14 | 19.9 | 0.70× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/p90/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=p90)

[P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.99 $0.14 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC

[P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.99 $0.69 0.70x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC

[P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.99 $2.37 2.39x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) [○SKYBI○](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%97%8BSKYBI%E2%97%8B) $0.99 $2.37 2.39x 2026-11-10 05:14 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) [○SKYBI○](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%97%8BSKYBI%E2%97%8B) $0.99 $0.58 0.59x 2026-11-10 05:14 UTC

[P90 | Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-minimal-wear) [RSॐPhantomॐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/RS%E0%A5%90Phantom%E0%A5%90) $0.99 $0.22 0.22x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC

[P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) [RSॐPhantomॐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/RS%E0%A5%90Phantom%E0%A5%90) $0.99 $0.20 0.20x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC

[P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-minimal-wear) [RSॐPhantomॐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/RS%E0%A5%90Phantom%E0%A5%90) $0.99 $1.06 1.07x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC

[P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) [RSॐPhantomॐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/RS%E0%A5%90Phantom%E0%A5%90) $0.99 $0.69 0.70x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) [RSॐPhantomॐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/RS%E0%A5%90Phantom%E0%A5%90) $0.99 $0.58 0.59x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.99 | 93.09% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.99 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed industrial 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% Legendary 0.0% Common 4.9% violet 14.4% uncommon 3.8% restricted 6.3% mil spec 11.4% #8847ff 6.3% blue 10.4% Rare 11.8% Uncommon 7.6% Consumer Grade 7.6% gray 7.6% milspec 3.8% #4b69ff 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.09 on average: an expected loss of $6.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt