---
title: "Pain team case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pain team ($0.45) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.92% from 42 items with odds, observed 89.34% over 2,126 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Pain team](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Pain team

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team?window=all)

Price · $0.45

Advertised RTP · 91.92% · EV $0.41 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.34% · 2,126 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 88.99% ±9.15 1,942 openings

30 days · 89.34% ±8.79 2,126 openings

since tracking started · 89.34% ±8.79 2,126 openings

28.0% 82.0% 136.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team?window=24h) | 57 | 81.79% ±53.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team?window=7d) | 1,942 | 88.99% ±9.15 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team) | 2,126 | 89.34% ±8.79 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pain-team?window=all) | 2,126 | 89.34% ±8.79 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,126 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $481 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $439 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-big-swell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $379 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $165 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $104 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $80.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $58.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $56.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250,000 | $45.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $22.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-field-tested) | 1 in 76,923 | $19.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 32,258 | $15.78 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22,222 | $13.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-well-worn) | 1 in 21,739 | $11.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,808 | $6.92 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 919 | $3.78 | 1.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 759 | $3.75 | 1.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 816 | $3.53 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 495 | $3.07 | 1.5% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 1 in 229 | $2.24 | 2.4% | 6 | 9.3 | 0.65× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $2.01 | 2.6% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 157 | $1.78 | 2.7% | 15 | 13.5 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 160 | $1.69 | 2.6% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.90× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $1.50 | 3.2% | 17 | 18.5 | 0.92× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $1.31 | 3.4% | 23 | 23.1 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $1.04 | 2.9% | 20 | 24.3 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $0.95 | 3.7% | 38 | 34.3 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.90 | 3.7% | 33 | 36.0 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.86 | 4.7% | 39 | 48.0 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $0.85 | 3.6% | 47 | 37.2 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.71 | 5.9% | 72 | 73.7 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.60 | 6.5% | 122 | 94.7 | 1.29× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.55 | 5.7% | 89 | 91.9 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.40 | 5.4% | 118 | 118.8 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.33 | 5.3% | 157 | 141.2 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.32 | 5.4% | 164 | 149.1 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.32 | 5.3% | 136 | 145.0 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.31 | 5.5% | 155 | 156.0 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.17 | 3.8% | 181 | 194.8 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.15 | 3.6% | 223 | 212.4 | 1.05× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) | 10.3% | $0.14 | 3.5% | 203 | 219.6 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) | 11.6% | $0.09 | 2.5% | 240 | 246.8 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/pain_team/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=pain-team)

[FAMAS | Survivor Z (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-battle-scarred) [CatatonicBeef](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/CatatonicBeef) $0.45 $0.32 0.71x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.17 0.38x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.15 0.33x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.14 0.31x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.15 0.33x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.60 1.33x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-battle-scarred) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.40 0.89x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.09 0.20x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[FAMAS | Survivor Z (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-battle-scarred) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.32 0.71x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.45 $0.17 0.38x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.45 | 91.92% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.44 | 94.01% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.44 | 94.53% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.0% classified 0.0% rare 0.0% gold 0.0% covert knife 0.0% industrial 10.3% Mythical 1.4% #d32ee6 0.0% Legendary 0.1% mil spec 8.8% uncommon 1.2% milspec 11.0% #8847ff 2.8% Rare 6.2% violet 1.1% Restricted 2.3% restricted 6.2% common 4.3% blue 34.2% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.92 on average: an expected loss of $8.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt