---
title: "Paradeev 1ch case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Paradeev 1ch ($6.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 98.07% from 42 items with odds, observed 102.20% over 663 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Paradeev 1ch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Paradeev 1ch

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch?window=all)

Price · $6.49

Advertised RTP · 98.07% · EV $6.36 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.20% · 663 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88 openings · below min

7 days · 104.79% ±9.52 534 openings

30 days · 102.20% ±8.53 663 openings

since tracking started · 102.20% ±8.53 663 openings

73.5% 97.5% 121.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch?window=24h) | 88 | 97.50% ±23.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch?window=7d) | 534 | 104.79% ±9.52 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch) | 663 | 102.20% ±8.53 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/paradeev1ch?window=all) | 663 | 102.20% ±8.53 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 663 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $368 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $283 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 37,037 | $183 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,129 | $140 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $129 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,195 | $78.48 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,585 | $66.36 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 787 | $54.76 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-minimal-wear) | 1 in 483 | $44.84 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.18× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 359 | $40.57 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 367 | $40.28 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 346 | $40.04 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 281 | $37.17 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 181 | $32.73 | 2.8% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 158 | $32.21 | 3.2% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $16.25 | 2.4% | 11 | 6.3 | 1.76× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $15.35 | 4.6% | 17 | 12.7 | 1.34× |
| [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $14.88 | 5.9% | 13 | 16.6 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.47 | 11.6% | 29 | 39.4 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $10.86 | 4.7% | 17 | 18.2 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $8.18 | 8.3% | 43 | 42.6 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $6.79 | 3.4% | 19 | 21.4 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $6.60 | 3.3% | 19 | 21.4 | 0.89× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $6.54 | 7.5% | 50 | 48.1 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $6.33 | 8.0% | 61 | 53.3 | 1.14× |
| [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $5.32 | 2.7% | 23 | 21.4 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $5.05 | 2.6% | 24 | 21.4 | 1.12× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $4.40 | 2.2% | 15 | 21.4 | 0.70× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $4.09 | 2.1% | 29 | 21.4 | 1.35× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $3.96 | 2.0% | 17 | 21.4 | 0.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $3.34 | 1.7% | 23 | 21.4 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $2.69 | 1.4% | 20 | 21.4 | 0.93× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $2.55 | 1.3% | 20 | 21.4 | 0.93× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $2.05 | 1.0% | 28 | 21.4 | 1.31× |
| [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.93 | 1.0% | 20 | 21.4 | 0.93× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.86 | 0.9% | 25 | 21.4 | 1.17× |
| [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.79 | 0.9% | 20 | 21.4 | 0.93× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.27 | 0.6% | 19 | 21.4 | 0.89× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.24 | 0.6% | 13 | 21.4 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.13 | 0.6% | 24 | 21.4 | 1.12× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.99 | 0.5% | 24 | 21.4 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.93 | 0.5% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/paradeev1ch/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=paradeev1ch)

[P250 | Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $0.99 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $5.32 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $2.69 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $6.54 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $6.54 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $1.79 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $15.35 2.37x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $5.05 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $6.54 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $6.49 $15.35 2.37x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.49 | 98.07% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.49 | 96.31% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 3.2% covert 0.1% sunny 0.0% rare 0.1% mil spec 21.0% covert knife 0.3% #ffd700 0.3% gold 0.3% extraordinary 0.6% restricted 7.9% industrial 10.1% #4b69ff 4.4% milspec 6.4% Industrial Grade 3.2% pink 3.2% #87c7ff 3.2% classified 3.2% Mythical 3.2% Rare 9.7% Mil Spec Grade 3.2% #B0C3D9 3.2% Consumer Grade 6.5% #8847ff 3.2% gray 3.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 98.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $98.07 on average: an expected loss of $1.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt