---
title: "Parfum case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Parfum ($14.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.06% from 39 items with odds, observed 85.58% over 1,264 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Parfum](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Parfum

A case on CSGORUN (hype2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum?window=all)

Price · $14.99

Advertised RTP · 94.06% · EV $14.10 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.58% · 1,264 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.54% ±32.38 105 openings

7 days · 85.58% ±8.12 1,264 openings

30 days · 85.58% ±8.12 1,264 openings

since tracking started · 85.58% ±8.12 1,264 openings

45.5% 78.5% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum?window=24h) | 105 | 78.54% ±32.4 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum?window=7d) | 1,264 | 85.58% ±8.12 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum) | 1,264 | 85.58% ±8.12 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/parfum?window=all) | 1,264 | 85.58% ±8.12 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,354 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $12K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,895 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 333,333 | $2,535 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $2,432 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 125,000 | $1,676 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $1,253 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,113 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 43,478 | $741 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 25,000 | $604 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 12,346 | $329 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 3,891 | $307 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $186 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 1,106 | $183 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 920 | $170 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-flowers-field-tested) | 1 in 563 | $136 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 213 | $94.56 | 3.2% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 134 | $84.96 | 4.5% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $62.30 | 5.0% | 15 | 15.3 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $52.70 | 5.3% | 9 | 19.1 | 0.47× |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $52.23 | 5.1% | 23 | 18.7 | 1.23× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $32.21 | 8.0% | 49 | 47.3 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $28.08 | 10.9% | 96 | 73.9 | 1.30× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $24.90 | 9.4% | 67 | 72.1 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $18.09 | 10.4% | 84 | 109.4 | 0.77× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $15.16 | 5.2% | 80 | 65.9 | 1.21× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $11.19 | 3.9% | 65 | 65.9 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $10.24 | 3.5% | 67 | 65.9 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $9.83 | 3.4% | 66 | 65.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $7.71 | 2.7% | 56 | 65.9 | 0.85× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $6.54 | 2.3% | 70 | 65.9 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $6.14 | 2.1% | 66 | 65.9 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $4.04 | 1.4% | 60 | 65.9 | 0.91× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.96 | 1.4% | 69 | 65.9 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.78 | 1.3% | 70 | 65.9 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $3.14 | 1.1% | 52 | 65.9 | 0.79× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.89 | 1.0% | 68 | 65.9 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.85 | 1.0% | 73 | 65.9 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.33 | 0.8% | 71 | 65.9 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.90 | 0.5% | 47 | 52.5 | 0.90× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/parfum/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=parfum)

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Шойгу Z V](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A8%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%B3%D1%83%20Z%20V) $14.99 $3.78 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[P90 | Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) [Шойгу Z V](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A8%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%B3%D1%83%20Z%20V) $14.99 $24.90 1.66x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) [Шойгу Z V](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A8%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%B3%D1%83%20Z%20V) $14.99 $32.21 2.15x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [Шойгу Z V](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A8%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%B3%D1%83%20Z%20V) $14.99 $18.09 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) [Представляешь?](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%B5%D1%88%D1%8C%3F) $14.99 $3.96 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) [Шойгу Z V](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A8%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%B3%D1%83%20Z%20V) $14.99 $28.08 1.87x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) [Aleg Coffee 😈](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleg%20Coffee%20%F0%9F%98%88) $14.99 $3.96 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC

[P250 | Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) [Aleg Coffee 😈](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleg%20Coffee%20%F0%9F%98%88) $14.99 $9.83 0.66x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [O](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/O) $14.99 $1.90 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC

[SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) [O](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/O) $14.99 $2.85 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 15:30 UTC | $14.99 | 94.06% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.99 | 94.00% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.2% classified 5.0% restricted 27.3% Immortal 0.1% epic 0.2% mil spec 20.7% milspec 1.4% other 1.4% red 5.5% Mythical 8.1% violet 14.6% Legendary 4.9% Mil Spec Grade 4.9% blue 4.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.06 on average: an expected loss of $5.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt