---
title: "Party case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Party ($0.08) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 42 items with odds, observed 103.61% over 34.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Party](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Party

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party?window=all)

Price · $0.08

Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $0.07 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 103.61% · 34.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 93.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.85% ±47.51 1,588 openings

7 days · 101.19% ±14.25 22.6K openings

30 days · 103.61% ±12.14 34.5K openings

since tracking started · 103.61% ±12.14 34.5K openings

40.5% 88.8% 137.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party?window=24h) | 1,588 | 88.85% ±47.5 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party?window=7d) | 22.6K | 101.19% ±14.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party) | 34.5K | 103.61% ±12.1 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/party?window=all) | 34.5K | 103.61% ±12.1 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $597 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $380 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $232 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $151 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $76.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $49.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $22.94 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $21.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $12.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $8.58 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142,857 | $7.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 71,429 | $4.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 41,667 | $3.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 22,222 | $2.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,765 | $1.64 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-well-worn) | 1 in 5,952 | $1.29 | 0.3% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 2,907 | $1.02 | 0.5% | 14 | 11.9 | 1.18× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 3,215 | $0.93 | 0.4% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,985 | $0.89 | 0.4% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 962 | $0.72 | 1.0% | 45 | 35.9 | 1.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.63 | 0.9% | 33 | 34.6 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 376 | $0.52 | 1.9% | 103 | 91.9 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-battle-scarred) | 1 in 376 | $0.40 | 1.5% | 116 | 91.9 | 1.26× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 214 | $0.38 | 2.5% | 167 | 161.8 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $0.37 | 2.8% | 198 | 187.0 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $0.30 | 5.2% | 448 | 427.0 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $0.30 | 3.6% | 321 | 294.7 | 1.09× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $0.24 | 4.4% | 503 | 458.5 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $0.24 | 4.1% | 432 | 427.0 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $0.20 | 5.1% | 632 | 632.1 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.16 | 4.5% | 740 | 692.6 | 1.07× |
| [MP5-SD \| Neon Squeezer (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-neon-squeezer-well-worn) | 10.3% | $0.15 | 21.4% | 3,583 | 3544.7 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.14 | 6.0% | 1,110 | 1063.9 | 1.04× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 10.3% | $0.06 | 8.6% | 3,651 | 3544.7 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 10.6% | $0.06 | 8.8% | 3,641 | 3666.0 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Ex3rcice \| Austin 2025 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ex3rcice-austin-2025) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 3.2% | 2,536 | 2633.5 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Battle-Scarred) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.03 | 3.6% | 3,003 | 2993.1 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.02 | 2.4% | 2,974 | 2993.1 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.01 | 1.1% | 2,529 | 2633.6 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.01 | 1.1% | 2,612 | 2633.6 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.01 | 1.1% | 2,531 | 2633.6 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.01 | 1.1% | 2,602 | 2633.6 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/party/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=party)

[P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9A%A1) $0.08 $0.01 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-battle-scarred) [⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9A%A1) $0.08 $0.01 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-neon-squeezer-well-worn) [⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9A%A1) $0.08 $0.15 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) [⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9A%A1) $0.08 $0.06 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-neon-squeezer-well-worn) [⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9A%A1) $0.08 $0.15 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-well-worn) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.08 $0.01 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) [Golden RUN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Golden%20RUN) $0.08 $0.06 0.75x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-battle-scarred) [Golden RUN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Golden%20RUN) $0.08 $0.01 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-battle-scarred) [Golden RUN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Golden%20RUN) $0.08 $0.06 0.75x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-battle-scarred) [Golden RUN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Golden%20RUN) $0.08 $0.01 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.08 | 89.96% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.06 | 119.95% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.06 | 95.39% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% rare 0.0% classified 0.0% mil spec 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% Legendary 0.0% #8847ff 0.7% violet 0.1% Mythical 0.6% restricted 0.1% Rare 10.7% blue 1.2% milspec 1.3% #4b69ff 1.2% #5e98d9 1.8% industrial 23.6% #87c7ff 10.6% other 8.7% Consumer Grade 8.7% consumer 22.9% gray 7.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt