--- title: "Patches case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Patches ($0.69) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.03% from 38 items with odds, observed 95.83% over 2,060 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Patches](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Patches A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches?window=all) Price · $0.69 Advertised RTP · 93.03% · EV $0.64 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.83% · 2,060 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.14% ±12.24 127 openings 7 days · 95.83% ±3.04 2,060 openings 30 days · 95.83% ±3.04 2,060 openings since tracking started · 95.83% ±3.04 2,060 openings 80.5% 93.3% 106.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches?window=24h) | 127 | 93.14% ±12.2 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches?window=7d) | 2,060 | 95.83% ±3.04 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches) | 2,060 | 95.83% ±3.04 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/patches?window=all) | 2,060 | 95.83% ±3.04 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,263 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Patch \| Dead Men patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-dead-men) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $64.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patch \| Aquatic Offensive patch · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-aquatic-offensive) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $41.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patch \| Team Spirit (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-team-spirit-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $34.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patch \| ENCE (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-ence-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $31.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patch \| The Boss patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-the-boss) | 1 in 333,333 | $23.85 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patch \| Metal The Global Elite ★ patch · Patch](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-the-global-elite-2) | 1 in 142,857 | $16.77 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patch \| Astralis (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-astralis-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 50,000 | $14.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patch \| FaZe Clan \| Stockholm 2021 patch · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-faze-clan-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 12,195 | $8.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Patch \| Team Spirit \| Stockholm 2021 patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-team-spirit-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 6,211 | $8.25 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Patch \| Astralis \| Stockholm 2021 patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-astralis-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 1,912 | $5.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Patch \| BIG \| Stockholm 2021 patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-big-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 890 | $4.36 | 0.8% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.97× | | [Patch \| Mad Sushi patch · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-mad-sushi) | 1 in 385 | $3.39 | 1.4% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.36× | | [Patch \| Copenhagen Flames \| Stockholm 2021 patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-copenhagen-flames-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 233 | $2.75 | 1.8% | 12 | 9.7 | 1.24× | | [Patch \| Metal Supreme Master patch · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-supreme-master) | 1 in 134 | $2.28 | 2.7% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.95× | | [Patch \| Welcome to the Clutch patch · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-welcome-to-the-clutch) | 1 in 51 | $1.40 | 4.3% | 44 | 44.1 | 1.00× | | [Patch \| Metal Master Guardian Elite patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-master-guardian-elite) | 1 in 75 | $1.38 | 2.8% | 30 | 30.0 | 1.00× | | [Patch \| Metal Master Guardian I patch · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-master-guardian-i) | 1 in 28 | $1.28 | 7.1% | 88 | 80.4 | 1.10× | | [Patch \| Ninjas in Pyjamas \| Stockholm 2021 patch](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-ninjas-in-pyjamas-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 37 | $1.20 | 5.1% | 76 | 61.9 | 1.23× | | [Patch \| Koi patch · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-koi) | 1 in 22 | $1.09 | 7.7% | 104 | 102.6 | 1.01× | | [Patch \| Gambit Gaming \| Stockholm 2021 patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-gambit-gaming-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 22 | $1.02 | 7.4% | 116 | 105.1 | 1.10× | | [Patch \| PGL \| Stockholm 2021 patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-pgl-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 13 | $0.85 | 10.1% | 164 | 172.2 | 0.95× | | [Patch \| Danger Zone patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-danger-zone) | 1 in 13 | $0.85 | 10.1% | 178 | 172.2 | 1.03× | | [Patch \| Longevity patch · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-longevity) | 1 in 25 | $0.61 | 3.8% | 94 | 91.1 | 1.03× | | [Patch \| Vigilance patch · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-vigilance) | 1 in 25 | $0.61 | 3.8% | 95 | 91.1 | 1.04× | | [Patch \| Combine Helmet patch · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-combine-helmet) | 1 in 25 | $0.54 | 3.4% | 87 | 91.1 | 0.95× | | [Patch \| Shattered Web patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-shattered-web) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 2.9% | 108 | 91.1 | 1.19× | | [Patch \| Bloodhound patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bloodhound) | 1 in 25 | $0.45 | 2.8% | 83 | 91.1 | 0.91× | | [Patch \| Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) | 1 in 25 | $0.45 | 2.8% | 90 | 91.1 | 0.99× | | [Patch \| Wildfire patch · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-wildfire) | 1 in 25 | $0.43 | 2.7% | 95 | 91.1 | 1.04× | | [Patch \| Hydra patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-hydra) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 2.6% | 89 | 91.1 | 0.98× | | [Patch \| Vortigaunt patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-vortigaunt) | 1 in 25 | $0.39 | 2.4% | 75 | 91.1 | 0.82× | | [Patch \| Phoenix patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-phoenix) | 1 in 25 | $0.36 | 2.3% | 81 | 91.1 | 0.89× | | [Patch \| City 17 patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-city-17) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 1.9% | 83 | 91.1 | 0.91× | | [Patch \| CMB patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-cmb) | 1 in 25 | $0.26 | 1.6% | 79 | 91.1 | 0.87× | | [Patch \| Vanguard patch · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-vanguard) | 1 in 25 | $0.22 | 1.4% | 85 | 91.1 | 0.93× | | [Patch \| Bravo patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bravo) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 1.3% | 101 | 91.1 | 1.11× | | [Patch \| Payback patch · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-payback) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 | 1.2% | 80 | 91.1 | 0.88× | | [Patch \| Breakout patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-breakout) | 1 in 25 | $0.17 | 1.1% | 95 | 91.1 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/patches/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=patches) [Patch | PGL | Stockholm 2021 patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-pgl-stockholm-2021) [Мелстрой Бурмалда](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B4%D0%B0) $0.69 $0.85 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC [Patch | CMB patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-cmb) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.26 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Patch | Shattered Web patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-shattered-web) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.46 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Patch | Vigilance patch · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-vigilance) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.61 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Patch | Bravo patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bravo) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.20 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Patch | Breakout patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-breakout) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.17 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Patch | Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.45 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Patch | Bloodhound patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bloodhound) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.45 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Patch | Wildfire patch · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-wildfire) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.43 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Patch | Bloodhound patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bloodhound) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.69 $0.45 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.69 | 93.03% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.69 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% Legendary 0.0% exotic 0.0% Patch 0.0% #4B69FF 4.3% Rare 54.3% High Grade 0.1% high 16.4% Mythical 14.5% other 2.7% Remarkable 7.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.03 on average: an expected loss of $6.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt