---
title: "Penny case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Penny ($1.14) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.30% from 42 items with odds, observed 94.23% over 11.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Penny](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Penny

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny?window=all)

Price · $1.14

Advertised RTP · 93.30% · EV $1.06 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.23% · 11.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.28% ±6.69 1,341 openings

7 days · 94.04% ±2.32 11.2K openings

30 days · 94.23% ±2.30 11.4K openings

since tracking started · 94.23% ±2.30 11.4K openings

83.0% 90.3% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny?window=24h) | 1,341 | 90.28% ±6.69 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny?window=7d) | 11.2K | 94.04% ±2.32 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny) | 11.4K | 94.23% ±2.30 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/penny?window=all) | 11.4K | 94.23% ±2.30 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $126 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $85.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $85.13 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 166,667 | $78.82 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 111,111 | $58.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $50.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 62,500 | $49.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38,462 | $40.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34,483 | $38.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 16,949 | $30.25 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,346 | $23.99 | 0.2% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.28× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 5,495 | $20.06 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,941 | $16.30 | 0.5% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.55× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 3,413 | $15.55 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 4,115 | $15.49 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,342 | $12.89 | 0.5% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-well-worn) | 1 in 1,761 | $12.49 | 0.7% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 870 | $9.79 | 1.1% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 433 | $6.99 | 1.5% | 29 | 26.3 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 330 | $6.70 | 1.9% | 38 | 34.5 | 1.10× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 261 | $5.60 | 2.0% | 49 | 43.7 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 199 | $5.22 | 2.5% | 58 | 57.3 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-well-worn) | 1 in 141 | $4.04 | 2.7% | 72 | 80.7 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $3.94 | 3.0% | 97 | 92.7 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $3.50 | 3.4% | 129 | 118.0 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $3.32 | 4.0% | 160 | 147.0 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $2.98 | 3.8% | 160 | 154.4 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $2.78 | 3.7% | 159 | 162.4 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $2.38 | 4.4% | 224 | 225.3 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $2.38 | 4.2% | 197 | 211.8 | 0.93× |
| [M249 \| Impact Drill (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $2.00 | 4.9% | 307 | 298.6 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $1.84 | 4.7% | 314 | 311.5 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.50 | 6.8% | 560 | 550.6 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $1.40 | 4.7% | 424 | 403.8 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.29 | 5.9% | 568 | 557.3 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1.10 | 6.8% | 741 | 744.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.71 | 5.5% | 919 | 944.1 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.60 | 4.8% | 962 | 959.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.53 | 4.5% | 992 | 1028.8 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.35 | 3.4% | 1,150 | 1183.9 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $0.29 | 2.9% | 1,202 | 1231.0 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 15.6% | $0.20 | 2.9% | 1,833 | 1775.4 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/penny/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=penny)

[MP9 | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $1.14 $0.35 0.31x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $1.14 $1.10 0.96x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.14 $0.20 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.14 $0.20 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.14 $2.78 2.44x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.14 $1.50 1.32x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.14 $0.20 0.18x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.14 $0.71 0.62x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.14 $0.71 0.62x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.14 $0.71 0.62x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.14 | 93.30% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.12 | 94.97% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.12 | 93.65% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% covert knife 0.0% classified 2.9% extraordinary 0.0% rare 0.0% pink 2.5% violet 8.5% #d32ee6 0.2% Legendary 0.4% Classified 1.5% #8847ff 1.3% Mythical 23.7% restricted 8.5% consumer 2.6% mil spec 13.1% milspec 8.3% Rare 10.8% blue 15.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.30 on average: an expected loss of $6.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt