---
title: "Pepe case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pepe ($0.67) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.53% from 42 items with odds, observed 96.70% over 6,831 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Pepe](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Pepe

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 93.53% · EV $0.63 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.70% · 6,831 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.26% ±5.63 2,125 openings

7 days · 96.64% ±3.19 6,628 openings

30 days · 96.70% ±3.14 6,831 openings

since tracking started · 96.70% ±3.14 6,831 openings

88.0% 94.2% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe?window=24h) | 2,125 | 94.26% ±5.63 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe?window=7d) | 6,628 | 96.64% ±3.19 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe) | 6,831 | 96.70% ±3.14 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pepe?window=all) | 6,831 | 96.70% ±3.14 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,831 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $78.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250,000 | $70.71 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $66.79 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200,000 | $64.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-battle-scarred) | 1 in 166,667 | $51.45 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142,857 | $49.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111,111 | $38.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $35.72 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 62,500 | $30.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 55,556 | $29.68 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 17,857 | $19.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) | 1 in 4,329 | $12.98 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 2,247 | $12.47 | 0.9% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.30× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,525 | $11.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 4,032 | $10.48 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 3,289 | $9.13 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,392 | $8.92 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $8.40 | 0.7% | 7 | 3.5 | 1.99× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 1,637 | $6.54 | 0.6% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 579 | $5.09 | 1.4% | 10 | 11.8 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 535 | $4.92 | 1.5% | 10 | 12.8 | 0.78× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 463 | $4.72 | 1.6% | 17 | 14.7 | 1.15× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 493 | $4.68 | 1.5% | 9 | 13.9 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-impire-field-tested) | 1 in 277 | $3.76 | 2.2% | 29 | 24.6 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $2.20 | 4.0% | 78 | 78.3 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $2.06 | 3.4% | 79 | 71.3 | 1.11× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $2.00 | 3.0% | 67 | 65.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $1.47 | 5.1% | 170 | 149.8 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $1.32 | 4.4% | 145 | 141.1 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.14 | 3.9% | 164 | 148.0 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.95 | 6.0% | 279 | 271.6 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.93 | 5.6% | 241 | 257.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.90 | 5.2% | 235 | 245.2 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.78 | 7.9% | 429 | 432.9 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.58 | 6.5% | 509 | 477.1 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.49 | 5.9% | 535 | 517.2 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.47 | 5.7% | 484 | 517.2 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.41 | 5.2% | 568 | 545.0 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.41 | 5.1% | 532 | 535.1 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 3.8% | 603 | 630.9 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 12.4% | $0.15 | 3.0% | 816 | 846.8 | 0.96× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-battle-scarred) | 11.7% | $0.15 | 2.8% | 794 | 801.6 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/pepe/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-battle-scarred) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.67 $35.72 53.31x 2026-11-10 01:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=pepe)

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.67 $1.32 1.97x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.67 $0.78 1.16x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC

[UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-field-tested) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.67 $0.47 0.70x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.67 $0.41 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-field-tested) [s1lent](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/s1lent) $0.67 $0.90 1.34x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $0.67 $0.41 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.67 $0.41 0.61x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.67 $0.90 1.34x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.67 $0.95 1.42x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-battle-scarred) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.67 $0.15 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.67 | 93.53% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.66 | 94.95% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.66 | 94.77% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Mythical 0.0% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% pink 0.2% industrial 0.1% Legendary 0.2% classified 0.2% restricted 31.1% consumer 0.1% rare 0.1% Classified 0.2% Restricted 4.0% Mil Spec Grade 1.1% #4b69ff 18.5% Rare 17.9% violet 7.0% blue 19.3% best hit $35.72 (53.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.53 on average: an expected loss of $6.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt