---
title: "Phoenix case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Phoenix ($5.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.59% from 35 items with odds, observed 91.06% over 117 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Phoenix](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Phoenix

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix?window=all)

Price · $5.99

Advertised RTP · 95.59% · EV $5.73 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.06% · 117 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 117 openings · below min

30 days · 117 openings · below min

since tracking started · 117 openings · below min

-0.5% 90.5% 181.5%

**Small sample.** 117 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix?window=24h) | 3 | 83.69% ±97.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix?window=7d) | 117 | 91.06% ±11.1 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix) | 117 | 91.06% ±11.1 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/phoenix?window=all) | 117 | 91.06% ±11.1 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 117 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $358 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $270 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $193 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90,909 | $158 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $105 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,821 | $84.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,525 | $63.78 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 2,445 | $55.02 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,845 | $51.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 1,992 | $49.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 1,949 | $49.34 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 1,650 | $48.56 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 1,802 | $47.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 1,980 | $47.28 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,279 | $46.98 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 299 | $29.06 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.13 | 7.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $10.66 | 8.4% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $10.25 | 6.9% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $10.03 | 9.3% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $9.79 | 10.1% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $9.72 | 11.2% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.90× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $9.68 | 9.5% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $5.47 | 5.1% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $4.81 | 4.5% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $4.69 | 4.4% | 11 | 6.3 | 1.75× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.91 | 2.7% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.88 | 2.7% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.68 | 2.5% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.68 | 2.5% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.61 | 2.4% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.32 | 2.2% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.80× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1.69 | 1.6% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.43× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.58 | 0.5% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.54 | 0.5% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.12× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/phoenix/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=phoenix)

[Nova | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-field-tested) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $5.99 $9.68 1.62x 2026-11-11 09:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $5.99 $2.68 0.45x 2026-11-11 09:34 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [king12121210](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/king12121210) $5.99 $2.68 0.45x 2026-11-11 08:42 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $5.99 $2.91 0.49x 2026-11-10 13:07 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $5.99 $2.61 0.44x 2026-11-10 13:07 UTC

[FAMAS | Sergeant (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-minimal-wear) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $5.99 $10.03 1.67x 2026-11-10 13:07 UTC

[Nova | Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $5.99 $10.66 1.78x 2026-11-10 13:06 UTC

[FAMAS | Sergeant (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-minimal-wear) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $5.99 $10.03 1.67x 2026-11-10 13:06 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $5.99 $4.69 0.78x 2026-11-10 13:06 UTC

[Nova | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-field-tested) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $5.99 $9.68 1.62x 2026-11-10 13:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $5.99 | 95.59% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.99 | 94.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% #ffd700 0.1% Immortal 0.1% gold 0.1% classified 17.4% Legendary 3.0% restricted 14.5% #d32ee6 5.6% Mythical 10.7% mil spec 16.1% #8847ff 21.5% violet 5.4% Mil Spec 5.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.59 on average: an expected loss of $4.41 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt