---
title: "Pink case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pink ($14.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.83% from 40 items with odds, observed 96.02% over 109 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Pink](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Pink

A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink?window=all)

Price · $14.99

Advertised RTP · 91.83% · EV $13.76 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.02% · 109 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 51.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 96.02% ±14.78 109 openings

30 days · 96.02% ±14.78 109 openings

since tracking started · 96.02% ±14.78 109 openings

75.0% 110.3% 145.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink?window=24h) | 20 | 110.18% ±34.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink?window=7d) | 109 | 96.02% ±14.8 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink) | 109 | 96.02% ±14.8 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pink?window=all) | 109 | 96.02% ±14.8 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 198 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $816 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $544 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 166,667 | $477 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 55,556 | $348 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 27,778 | $289 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,638 | $231 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-factory-new) | 1 in 5,051 | $172 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 2,457 | $136 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 1,225 | $99.81 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 719 | $85.19 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 309 | $71.07 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 180 | $57.45 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 136 | $53.19 | 2.8% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.37× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $38.80 | 3.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $35.58 | 3.8% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.70× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $27.43 | 4.4% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.46× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $26.54 | 5.3% | 12 | 5.5 | 2.19× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $24.06 | 5.7% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $22.37 | 7.1% | 7 | 8.6 | 0.81× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $18.39 | 8.9% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $17.23 | 9.4% | 14 | 14.9 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $16.80 | 10.1% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $15.24 | 9.4% | 16 | 16.8 | 0.95× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $13.41 | 3.0% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.32× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $12.56 | 2.8% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.32× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.39 | 2.5% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $9.09 | 2.0% | 6 | 6.0 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $8.44 | 1.9% | 11 | 6.0 | 1.82× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.84 | 1.5% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.70 | 1.5% | 12 | 6.0 | 1.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.47 | 1.2% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.32× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.27 | 1.2% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.66× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.05 | 1.1% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.66× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $3.77 | 0.8% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.66× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.46 | 0.8% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.49× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.29 | 0.7% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.28 | 0.7% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.49× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.32 | 0.5% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.16× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.29 | 0.5% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.01 | 0.4% | 1 | 6.0 | 0.17× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/pink/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=pink)

[SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) [ĐⱤɆɎ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C4%90%E2%B1%A4%C9%86%C9%8E) $14.99 $2.32 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-minimal-wear) [ĐⱤɆɎ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C4%90%E2%B1%A4%C9%86%C9%8E) $14.99 $3.46 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $18.39 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $26.54 1.77x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $2.32 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $15.24 1.02x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $57.45 3.83x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $22.37 1.49x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) [ĐⱤɆɎ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C4%90%E2%B1%A4%C9%86%C9%8E) $14.99 $2.32 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $15.24 1.02x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $14.99 | 91.83% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% Covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% rare 0.4% classified 31.6% uncommon 9.9% Ancient 1.2% restricted 13.9% Legendary 10.2% #d32ee6 8.3% Mythical 9.1% pink 6.1% #8847ff 3.0% #4b69ff 3.0% blue 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.83 on average: an expected loss of $8.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt