--- title: "Pins case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pins ($2.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.25% from 36 items with odds, observed 94.50% over 513 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Pins](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Pins A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins?window=all) Price · $2.99 Advertised RTP · 94.25% · EV $2.82 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.50% · 513 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 42.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 94.50% ±4.50 513 openings 30 days · 94.50% ±4.50 513 openings since tracking started · 94.50% ±4.50 513 openings 76.5% 91.8% 107.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins?window=24h) | 48 | 91.63% ±14.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins?window=7d) | 513 | 94.50% ±4.50 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins) | 513 | 94.50% ±4.50 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pins?window=all) | 513 | 94.50% ±4.50 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 622 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Valeria Phoenix Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/valeria-phoenix-pin) | 1 in 14,085 | $46.91 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) | 1 in 9,259 | $39.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Guardian Elite Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-elite-pin) | 1 in 5,747 | $34.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Dust II Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dust-ii-pin) | 1 in 3,077 | $27.72 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Alyx Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/alyx-pin) | 1 in 2,857 | $24.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Health Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/health-pin) | 1 in 1,506 | $21.74 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Civil Protection Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/civil-protection-pin) | 1 in 960 | $16.70 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Brigadier General Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/brigadier-general-pin) | 1 in 588 | $13.32 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Chroma Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-pin) | 1 in 496 | $12.42 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× | | [Cache Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/cache-pin) | 1 in 374 | $11.09 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× | | [Mirage Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/mirage-pin) | 1 in 254 | $7.58 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) | 1 in 191 | $6.62 | 1.2% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× | | [Office Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/office-pin) | 1 in 185 | $6.50 | 1.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.48× | | [Bloodhound Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-pin) | 1 in 142 | $5.69 | 1.4% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× | | [Nuke Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/nuke-pin) | 1 in 122 | $4.96 | 1.4% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× | | [Lambda Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/lambda-pin) | 1 in 99 | $4.40 | 1.6% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× | | [Black Mesa Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-mesa-pin) | 1 in 92 | $4.28 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× | | [Victory Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/victory-pin) | 1 in 84 | $4.05 | 1.7% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× | | [Headcrab Glyph Pin pin · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/headcrab-glyph-pin) | 1 in 76 | $3.83 | 1.8% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× | | [Combine Helmet Pin pin · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/combine-helmet-pin) | 1 in 62 | $3.61 | 2.1% | 13 | 10.1 | 1.29× | | [Wildfire Pin pin · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/wildfire-pin) | 1 in 60 | $3.32 | 2.0% | 11 | 10.4 | 1.05× | | [Guardian Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-pin) | 1 in 57 | $3.05 | 1.9% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [City 17 Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/city-17-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.91 | 2.3% | 10 | 14.0 | 0.71× | | [Italy Pin pin · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/italy-pin) | 1 in 26 | $2.79 | 3.9% | 26 | 24.2 | 1.07× | | [Militia Pin pin · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/militia-pin) | 1 in 28 | $2.74 | 3.4% | 21 | 21.9 | 0.96× | | [Easy Peasy Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/easy-peasy-pin) | 1 in 20 | $2.73 | 4.8% | 22 | 30.7 | 0.72× | | [Tactics Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tactics-pin) | 1 in 23 | $2.71 | 4.2% | 24 | 26.9 | 0.89× | | [Welcome to the Clutch Pin pin · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-clutch-pin) | 1 in 17 | $2.68 | 5.7% | 43 | 37.1 | 1.16× | | [Death Sentence Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-sentence-pin) | 1 in 23 | $2.67 | 4.2% | 32 | 27.6 | 1.16× | | [Bravo Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/bravo-pin) | 1 in 22 | $2.65 | 4.3% | 33 | 28.3 | 1.16× | | [Inferno 2 Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-2-pin) | 1 in 22 | $2.62 | 4.2% | 25 | 28.3 | 0.88× | | [Guardian 2 Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-2-pin) | 1 in 24 | $2.62 | 3.9% | 25 | 26.2 | 0.95× | | [Train Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/train-pin) | 1 in 23 | $2.53 | 4.0% | 30 | 27.6 | 1.09× | | [Baggage Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/baggage-pin) | 1 in 12 | $2.42 | 7.0% | 55 | 50.6 | 1.09× | | [Canals Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/canals-pin) | 1 in 18 | $2.39 | 4.7% | 33 | 34.2 | 0.97× | | [Guardian 3 Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-3-pin) | 25.7% | $2.13 | 19.5% | 160 | 160.1 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/pins/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=pins) [Welcome to the Clutch Pin pin · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-clutch-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $2.68 0.90x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC [Easy Peasy Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/easy-peasy-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $2.73 0.91x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC [Guardian 3 Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-3-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $2.13 0.71x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC [Bravo Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/bravo-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $2.65 0.89x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC [Guardian 3 Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-3-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $2.13 0.71x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC [Bravo Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/bravo-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $2.65 0.89x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC [Office Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/office-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $6.50 2.17x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC [Office Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/office-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $6.50 2.17x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC [Guardian 3 Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-3-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $2.13 0.71x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC [Inferno 2 Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-2-pin) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $2.99 $2.62 0.88x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 94.25% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.6% remarkable 11.3% exotic 1.9% high 20.0% violet 8.7% #4B69FF 1.6% Remarkable 1.7% blue 48.2% High Grade 6.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.25 on average: an expected loss of $5.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt