---
title: "Polish case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Polish ($11.37) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 97.25% from 49 items with odds, observed 98.37% over 174 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Polish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Polish

A case on CSGORUN (chickens), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish?window=all)

Price · $11.37

Advertised RTP · 97.25% · EV $11.06 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.37% · 174 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 41 openings · below min

7 days · 99.43% ±18.48 141 openings

30 days · 98.37% ±16.70 174 openings

since tracking started · 98.37% ±16.70 174 openings

69.5% 104.3% 139.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish?window=24h) | 41 | 104.18% ±34.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish?window=7d) | 141 | 99.43% ±18.5 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish) | 174 | 98.37% ±16.7 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/polish?window=all) | 174 | 98.37% ±16.7 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 174 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,331 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,152 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $968 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $791 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $381 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32,258 | $338 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,299 | $205 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 5,747 | $181 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,025 | $171 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,917 | $165 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,994 | $134 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,490 | $102 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,218 | $89.17 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 594 | $82.47 | 1.3% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 494 | $69.79 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $66.48 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 266 | $52.08 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $46.46 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 162 | $40.57 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.86× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $39.53 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $38.41 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $32.30 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $28.83 | 2.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $26.67 | 3.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $25.70 | 4.6% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $25.10 | 3.0% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $20.90 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $19.83 | 3.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $19.11 | 3.8% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $18.68 | 3.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $15.46 | 3.7% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.73× |
| [Nova \| Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $15.08 | 6.5% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $14.10 | 4.6% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.45× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.79 | 4.6% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $12.47 | 5.3% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $10.28 | 4.4% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $8.26 | 3.5% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.73 | 3.2% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.37× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $7.12 | 3.0% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.50 | 2.7% | 14 | 8.0 | 1.75× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $5.69 | 2.4% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.36× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $5.18 | 2.2% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $5.09 | 2.1% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $4.08 | 1.7% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $2.94 | 1.2% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.64× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $2.82 | 1.1% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1.85 | 0.7% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/polish/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=polish)

[Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-battle-scarred) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $11.37 $4.08 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-field-tested) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $11.37 $20.90 1.84x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-battle-scarred) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $11.37 $2.82 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $11.37 $1.85 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $11.37 $14.10 1.24x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $11.37 $12.47 1.10x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $11.37 $5.18 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $11.37 $18.68 1.64x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $11.37 $25.70 2.26x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $11.37 $19.11 1.68x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.37 | 97.25% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.37 | 97.61% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.2% classified 19.8% extraordinary 0.9% #ffd700 0.0% rare 0.0% covert 1.4% Immortal 0.5% covert knife 0.6% Ancient 0.9% mil spec 4.9% #d32ee6 2.0% red 1.3% Heavy 4.7% industrial 4.7% pink 9.3% Rare 4.7% uncommon 4.6% #8847ff 4.7% consumer 9.2% restricted 9.0% #d32ce6 4.5% Consumer Grade 4.5% #4b69ff 4.0% gray 3.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.25 on average: an expected loss of $2.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt