---
title: "Potion case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Potion ($5.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 97.62% from 42 items with odds, observed 98.57% over 2,862 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Potion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Potion

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 97.62% · EV $4.88 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.57% · 2,862 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 96.73% ±5.30 1,581 openings

30 days · 98.57% ±3.98 2,862 openings

since tracking started · 98.57% ±3.98 2,862 openings

91.0% 97.0% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion?window=7d) | 1,581 | 96.73% ±5.30 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion) | 2,862 | 98.57% ±3.98 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/potion?window=all) | 2,862 | 98.57% ±3.98 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,863 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $315 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $217 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15,873 | $146 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 18,868 | $140 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,714 | $89.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 2,370 | $69.71 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 921 | $46.66 | 1.0% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 693 | $39.53 | 1.2% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.69× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $27.57 | 1.8% | 4 | 9.2 | 0.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 220 | $24.67 | 2.3% | 5 | 13.0 | 0.38× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $18.30 | 3.3% | 32 | 25.5 | 1.25× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $15.77 | 3.5% | 31 | 31.3 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $15.08 | 5.9% | 60 | 54.5 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $14.81 | 2.9% | 31 | 27.1 | 1.14× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $14.63 | 3.5% | 36 | 33.6 | 1.07× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $12.06 | 7.4% | 87 | 86.0 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $11.28 | 3.8% | 46 | 46.6 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $8.26 | 4.6% | 88 | 77.1 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.73 | 7.2% | 115 | 130.5 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $6.79 | 5.3% | 104 | 109.6 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $6.60 | 5.0% | 111 | 105.2 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.94 | 6.1% | 151 | 143.5 | 1.05× |
| [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.22 | 4.9% | 170 | 162.1 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.70 | 3.8% | 144 | 143.4 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $3.55 | 3.8% | 136 | 148.4 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $3.12 | 3.4% | 151 | 150.8 | 1.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.07 | 3.1% | 131 | 141.4 | 0.93× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.06 | 2.8% | 138 | 127.9 | 1.08× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.56 | 2.2% | 126 | 121.0 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.48 | 2.3% | 128 | 127.6 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.35 | 1.7% | 107 | 99.6 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.90 | 1.3% | 94 | 95.1 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.78 | 1.3% | 102 | 105.6 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $1.28 | 0.7% | 77 | 80.6 | 0.96× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.24 | 0.8% | 92 | 91.8 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $0.97 | 0.5% | 70 | 73.8 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.86 | 0.4% | 59 | 61.5 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $0.71 | 0.3% | 64 | 61.5 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $0.57 | 0.2% | 41 | 49.7 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.51 | 0.2% | 48 | 45.6 | 1.05× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 46 | 38.8 | 1.19× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 26 | 35.1 | 0.74× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/potion/show`, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=potion)

[Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $5.00 $4.22 0.84x 2026-11-08 20:55 UTC

[Nova | Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-field-tested) [~Eghto](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/~Eghto) $5.00 $15.08 3.02x 2026-11-08 20:15 UTC

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) [~Eghto](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/~Eghto) $5.00 $0.97 0.19x 2026-11-08 20:15 UTC

[MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $5.00 $3.07 0.61x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC

[AUG | Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) [Марк Марченков](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%20%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2) $5.00 $0.71 0.14x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) [Марк Марченков](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%20%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2) $5.00 $0.97 0.19x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [Марк Марченков](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%20%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2) $5.00 $1.90 0.38x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) [Марк Марченков](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%20%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2) $5.00 $8.26 1.65x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) [Volchonok052](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Volchonok052) $5.00 $0.57 0.11x 2026-11-08 20:05 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $5.00 $0.86 0.17x 2026-11-08 19:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.00 | 97.62% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 101.23% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 2.8% covert 0.1% Classified 0.0% restricted 12.8% covert knife 0.0% rare 0.0% industrial 12.5% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 15.0% classified 1.5% Heavy 1.9% blue 0.9% Rare 21.7% uncommon 8.2% #d32ce6 3.7% Mythical 5.0% Consumer Grade 5.3% #4b69ff 8.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.62 on average: an expected loss of $2.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt